Bundesliga · Matchweek 5

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV Prediction

Sat 10 Oct, 14:30

Match essentials

Kick-off (UK): Sat 10 Oct, 14:30 (BST)
Competition: Bundesliga
Round: Matchweek 5
Venue: To be confirmed

United Matchday prediction

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win73%

Draw15%

Hamburger SV win12%

Predicted score: 2–1
Over 2.5 goals: 72%
Under 2.5 goals: 28%
BTTS yes: 60%

Over 1.5 goals: 89%
Over 3.5 goals: 51%
BTTS no: 40%
Expected goals: 2.72 – 1.02

Low confidence

Why the model favours this outcome

Away defensive numbers work against Hamburger SV, who have shipped goals above the Bundesliga average on the road. Combined attacking and defensive numbers point toward a higher-scoring game than average. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.

Most likely scorelines

2–19.0%
2–08.8%
3–18.1%
3–08.0%
1–16.6%
1–06.5%
4–15.5%
4–05.4%

Team comparison

Statistic	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	Hamburger SV
Matches played	4	4
Points per match	0.75	0.75
Goals per match	1.75	0.50
Goals conceded per match	2.50	3.25
Home / away goals scored	4	0
Home / away goals conceded	4	7
Last 5 points	3	3
Last 5 goals scored	7	2
Last 5 goals conceded	10	13
Win percentage	25%	25%

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim recent form

LLWL

Hamburger SV recent form

LLLW

Recent form

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

1W 0D 4L in the last 5 · 7 scored, 14 conceded

Lat SC Paderborn 071–3
Wvs VfB Stuttgart2–1
Lvs Borussia Dortmund2–3
Lat 1. FC Köln2–3
Lat Borussia Mönchengladbach0–4

Hamburger SV

1W 1D 3L in the last 5 · 3 scored, 14 conceded

Wvs 1. FC Köln2–1
Lat RB Leipzig0–5
Lvs 1. FSV Mainz 050–5
Lat Borussia Dortmund0–2
Dat Bayer 04 Leverkusen1–1

Where to watch (UK)

Bundesliga matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 14:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.