Bundesliga · Matchweek 4

SC Paderborn 07 vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim Prediction

Sun 20 Sept, 18:30

Match essentials

Kick-off (UK): Sun 20 Sept, 18:30 (BST)
Competition: Bundesliga
Round: Matchweek 4
Venue: To be confirmed

United Matchday prediction

SC Paderborn 07 win39%

Draw24%

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win37%

Predicted score: 1–1
Over 2.5 goals: 60%
Under 2.5 goals: 40%
BTTS yes: 62%

Over 1.5 goals: 82%
Over 3.5 goals: 38%
BTTS no: 38%
Expected goals: 1.59 – 1.54

Low confidence

Why the model favours this outcome

SC Paderborn 07 have scored at a below-average rate at home, which limits the model's home goal expectation. Combined attacking and defensive numbers point toward a higher-scoring game than average. Statistically the two sides are closely matched, so the draw probability stays comparatively high. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.

Most likely scorelines

1–110.7%
2–18.5%
1–28.2%
1–07.0%
0–16.8%
2–26.5%
2–05.5%
0–25.2%

Team comparison

Statistic	SC Paderborn 07	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
Matches played	4	4
Points per match	1.00	0.75
Goals per match	0.75	1.75
Goals conceded per match	1.25	2.50
Home / away goals scored	3	3
Home / away goals conceded	2	6
Last 5 points	4	3
Last 5 goals scored	3	7
Last 5 goals conceded	5	10
Win percentage	25%	25%

SC Paderborn 07 recent form

DLLW

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim recent form

LLWL

Recent form

SC Paderborn 07

0W 1D 2L in the last 3 · 0 scored, 4 conceded

Lat Borussia Dortmund0–3
Lvs SC Freiburg0–1
Dat 1. FSV Mainz 050–0

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

2W 0D 3L in the last 5 · 7 scored, 11 conceded

Wvs VfB Stuttgart2–1
Lvs Borussia Dortmund2–3
Lat 1. FC Köln2–3
Lat Borussia Mönchengladbach0–4
Wvs SV Werder Bremen1–0

Where to watch (UK)

Bundesliga matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports. Kick-off is Sun 20 Sept, 18:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.