Ligue 1
ES Troyes AC vs Le Havre AC
Home
39%
Draw
25%
Away
36%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 56%BTTS: 59%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Ligue 1 · Matchweek 5
Olympique de Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sun 20 Sept, 19:45 (BST)
- Competition
- Ligue 1
- Round
- Matchweek 5
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Olympique de Marseille win43%
Draw23%
Paris Saint-Germain win34%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 36%
- BTTS yes
- 65%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 84%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 42%
- BTTS no
- 35%
- Expected goals
- 1.76 – 1.55
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Home scoring numbers favour Olympique de Marseille, who have created goals at an above-average rate in front of their own crowd. The model expects a relatively open scoring environment in this match. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.4%
- 0–15.6%
- 2–05.6%
- 3–15.1%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Olympique de Marseille | Paris Saint-Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.30 |
| Goals per match | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Home / away goals scored | 13 | 15 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 8 | 7 |
| Last 5 points | 15 | 15 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 15 | 14 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 6 | 3 |
| Win percentage | 60% | 70% |
Olympique de Marseille recent form
WWWWW
Paris Saint-Germain recent form
WWWWW
Recent form
Olympique de Marseille
2W 0D 3L in the last 5 · 9 scored, 7 conceded
- Lat Stade Rennais FC 19010–1
- Lvs Paris FC2–3
- Lat AS Monaco FC0–2
- Wvs RC Strasbourg Alsace4–0
- Wvs Stade Rennais FC 19013–1
Paris Saint-Germain
2W 2D 1L in the last 5 · 12 scored, 7 conceded
- Wat Stade Brestois 291–0
- Wvs ŠK Slovan Bratislava6–1
- Lvs AS Monaco FC1–2
- Dat Lille OSC2–2
- Dat Stade Rennais FC 19012–2
Team news
Paris Saint-Germain
- United ease troubles with sensational Roma comeback, PSG rampant in Champions League
- Bradley Barcola transfer news: Arsenal could hijack Liverpool's move for PSG winger - Paper Talk
- Can PSG win a third straight Champions League without injured Kvaratskhelia?
- Transfer rumors, news: Arsenal, Chelsea, City tracking PSG star Doué
Where to watch (UK)
Ligue 1 matches are typically shown in the UK by TNT Sports. Kick-off is Sun 20 Sept, 19:45 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 30 August 2026
Last updated: 20 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
Ligue 1
Racing Club de Lens vs Toulouse FC
Home
47%
Draw
22%
Away
31%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 68%BTTS: 68%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris FC
Home
45%
Draw
25%
Away
31%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 58%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.