Ligue 1
ES Troyes AC vs Le Havre AC
Home
39%
Draw
25%
Away
36%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 56%BTTS: 59%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Ligue 1 · Matchweek 4
Lille OSC vs ES Troyes AC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sun 13 Sept, 14:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Ligue 1
- Round
- Matchweek 4
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Lille OSC win49%
Draw22%
ES Troyes AC win29%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- BTTS yes
- 66%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 86%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 45%
- BTTS no
- 34%
- Expected goals
- 1.96 – 1.46
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Combined attacking and defensive numbers point toward a higher-scoring game than average. Recent results also favour Lille OSC, whose points-per-match rate over the last five games is above average. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–26.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.4%
- 2–06.3%
- 3–16.0%
- 0–14.8%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Lille OSC | ES Troyes AC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 2.10 | 0.80 |
| Goals per match | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.70 | 1.70 |
| Home / away goals scored | 7 | 2 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 3 | 6 |
| Last 5 points | 11 | 4 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 6 | 3 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 3 | 6 |
| Win percentage | 60% | 20% |
Lille OSC recent form
WDDWW
ES Troyes AC recent form
LLDWL
Recent form
Lille OSC
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 7 scored, 7 conceded
- Lvs Real Betis Balompié2–3
- Wat Toulouse FC1–0
- Dvs Paris Saint-Germain2–2
- Wat Angers SCO2–0
- Lvs AJ Auxerre0–2
ES Troyes AC
1W 1D 1L in the last 3 · 4 scored, 7 conceded
- Lvs RC Strasbourg Alsace2–6
- Wat FC Lorient2–1
- Dvs Paris FC0–0
Where to watch (UK)
Ligue 1 matches are typically shown in the UK by TNT Sports. Kick-off is Sun 13 Sept, 14:00 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 23 August 2026
Last updated: 13 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
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Racing Club de Lens vs Toulouse FC
Home
47%
Draw
22%
Away
31%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 68%BTTS: 68%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris FC
Home
45%
Draw
25%
Away
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- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 58%
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.