Ligue 1
ES Troyes AC vs Le Havre AC
Home
39%
Draw
25%
Away
36%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 56%BTTS: 59%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Ligue 1 · Matchweek 5
Le Mans FC vs FC Lorient Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 19 Sept, 19:45 (BST)
- Competition
- Ligue 1
- Round
- Matchweek 5
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Le Mans FC win33%
Draw27%
FC Lorient win39%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- BTTS yes
- 50%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 70%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 23%
- BTTS no
- 50%
- Expected goals
- 1.16 – 1.29
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Le Mans FC have produced a stronger-than-average attacking record at home in this competition. FC Lorient have defended well on the road, conceding less often than the average travelling side. Statistically the two sides are closely matched, so the draw probability stays comparatively high. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–08.7%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–17.5%
- 0–27.2%
- 2–05.8%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Le Mans FC | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| Goals per match | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.90 | 0.80 |
| Home / away goals scored | 7 | 4 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 9 | 2 |
| Last 5 points | 2 | 10 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 3 | 4 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 10 | 2 |
| Win percentage | 10% | 40% |
Le Mans FC recent form
LLDLD
FC Lorient recent form
WWDLW
Recent form
Le Mans FC
0W 3D 1L in the last 4 · 7 scored, 8 conceded
- Dvs Racing Club de Lens2–2
- Dat OGC Nice1–1
- Lat Stade Rennais FC 19012–3
- Dvs Stade Brestois 292–2
FC Lorient
1W 2D 2L in the last 5 · 4 scored, 6 conceded
- Dvs Toulouse FC2–2
- Wat Racing Club de Lens1–0
- Lvs ES Troyes AC1–2
- Dat OGC Nice0–0
- Lvs Le Havre AC0–2
Where to watch (UK)
Ligue 1 matches are typically shown in the UK by TNT Sports. Kick-off is Sat 19 Sept, 19:45 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 29 August 2026
Last updated: 19 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
Ligue 1
Racing Club de Lens vs Toulouse FC
Home
47%
Draw
22%
Away
31%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 68%BTTS: 68%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris FC
Home
45%
Draw
25%
Away
31%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 58%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.