Bundesliga
FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05
Home
32%
Draw
23%
Away
44%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 60%BTTS: 62%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Bundesliga · Matchweek 6
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 17 Oct, 14:30 (BST)
- Competition
- Bundesliga
- Round
- Matchweek 6
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Hamburger SV win37%
Draw21%
VfB Stuttgart win42%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 73%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 27%
- BTTS yes
- 72%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 89%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 53%
- BTTS no
- 28%
- Expected goals
- 1.84 – 1.96
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Hamburger SV have scored at a below-average rate at home, which limits the model's home goal expectation. Combined attacking and defensive numbers point toward a higher-scoring game than average. Statistically the two sides are closely matched, so the draw probability stays comparatively high. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–18.1%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–35.2%
- 2–34.8%
- 3–14.6%
- 3–24.5%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 4 | 4 |
| Points per match | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Goals per match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.25 | 2.25 |
| Home / away goals scored | 2 | 2 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 6 | 7 |
| Last 5 points | 3 | 3 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 2 | 6 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 13 | 9 |
| Win percentage | 25% | 25% |
Hamburger SV recent form
LLLW
VfB Stuttgart recent form
LWLL
Recent form
Hamburger SV
1W 1D 3L in the last 5 · 3 scored, 14 conceded
- Wvs 1. FC Köln2–1
- Lat RB Leipzig0–5
- Lvs 1. FSV Mainz 050–5
- Lat Borussia Dortmund0–2
- Dat Bayer 04 Leverkusen1–1
VfB Stuttgart
2W 0D 3L in the last 5 · 9 scored, 10 conceded
- Lvs Borussia Dortmund0–1
- Lat TSG 1899 Hoffenheim1–2
- Wvs Viking FK3–1
- Wvs 1. FC Köln4–1
- Lat Bayern Munich1–5
Team news
Where to watch (UK)
Bundesliga matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 14:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 26 September 2026
Last updated: 29 September 2026
Status: Live
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 510
- 1X2 accuracy
- 46.9%
- BTTS accuracy
- 57.5%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.8%
- Exact score
- 10.6%
Related predictions
Bundesliga
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg
Home
57%
Draw
20%
Away
23%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 69%BTTS: 66%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.