Ligue 1
ES Troyes AC vs Le Havre AC
Home
39%
Draw
25%
Away
36%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 56%BTTS: 59%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Ligue 1 · Matchweek 4
FC Lorient vs Toulouse FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 12 Sept, 19:45 (BST)
- Competition
- Ligue 1
- Round
- Matchweek 4
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
FC Lorient win41%
Draw25%
Toulouse FC win34%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- BTTS yes
- 57%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 77%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 31%
- BTTS no
- 43%
- Expected goals
- 1.49 – 1.34
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
FC Lorient have scored at a below-average rate at home, which limits the model's home goal expectation. Statistically the two sides are closely matched, so the draw probability stays comparatively high. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–17.9%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–06.6%
- 0–05.9%
- 2–25.9%
Team comparison
| Statistic | FC Lorient | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.30 |
| Goals per match | 0.90 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Home / away goals scored | 5 | 9 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 6 | 8 |
| Last 5 points | 10 | 8 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 4 | 8 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 2 | 5 |
| Win percentage | 40% | 30% |
FC Lorient recent form
WWDLW
Toulouse FC recent form
DWDLW
Recent form
FC Lorient
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 6 scored, 4 conceded
- Wat Racing Club de Lens1–0
- Lvs ES Troyes AC1–2
- Dat OGC Nice0–0
- Lvs Le Havre AC0–2
- Wat FC Metz4–0
Toulouse FC
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 6 scored, 7 conceded
- Lvs Lille OSC0–1
- Dat Stade Brestois 292–2
- Lvs Olympique Lyonnais0–2
- Wvs Olympique Lyonnais2–1
- Wat RC Strasbourg Alsace2–1
Where to watch (UK)
Ligue 1 matches are typically shown in the UK by TNT Sports. Kick-off is Sat 12 Sept, 19:45 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 23 August 2026
Last updated: 12 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
Ligue 1
Racing Club de Lens vs Toulouse FC
Home
47%
Draw
22%
Away
31%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 68%BTTS: 68%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris FC
Home
45%
Draw
25%
Away
31%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 58%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.