Primeira Liga
CF Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia AC
Home
53%
Draw
24%
Away
23%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 50%BTTS: 52%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Primeira Liga · Matchweek 10
FC Arouca vs CD Nacional Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sun 1 Nov, 15:30 (GMT+0)
- Competition
- Primeira Liga
- Round
- Matchweek 10
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
FC Arouca win71%
Draw17%
CD Nacional win12%
- Predicted score
- 2–0
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 36%
- BTTS yes
- 54%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 84%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 42%
- BTTS no
- 46%
- Expected goals
- 2.42 – 0.90
Medium confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Home scoring numbers favour FC Arouca, who have created goals at an above-average rate in front of their own crowd. Away defensive numbers work against CD Nacional, who have shipped goals above the Primeira Liga average on the road. FC Arouca's home defensive record is tighter than the competition average, which suppresses the away goal expectation. Combined attacking and defensive numbers point toward a higher-scoring game than average.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.8%
- 3–08.6%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–17.7%
- 4–05.2%
- 4–14.7%
Team comparison
| Statistic | FC Arouca | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 6 | 8 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 0.50 |
| Goals per match | 1.50 | 1.13 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.17 | 2.25 |
| Home / away goals scored | 7 | 4 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 3 | 8 |
| Last 5 points | 5 | 0 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 5 | 5 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 7 | 15 |
| Win percentage | 33% | 13% |
FC Arouca recent form
LWDLD
CD Nacional recent form
LLLLL
Recent form
FC Arouca
1W 2D 2L in the last 5 · 5 scored, 7 conceded
- Dat Sporting Clube de Portugal2–2
- Lvs CD Santa Clara1–2
- Dat GD Estoril Praia0–0
- Wvs CS Marítimo2–1
- Lat FC Porto0–2
CD Nacional
0W 0D 5L in the last 5 · 5 scored, 15 conceded
- Lat Rio Ave FC2–3
- Lvs FC Famalicão0–4
- Lvs FC Alverca1–3
- Lat Sporting Clube de Portugal0–2
- Lvs CF Estrela da Amadora2–3
Where to watch (UK)
Primeira Liga matches are typically shown in the UK by Premier Sports. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 15:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 11 October 2026
Last updated: 11 October 2026
Status: Live
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 590
- 1X2 accuracy
- 46.9%
- BTTS accuracy
- 56.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.0%
- Exact score
- 10.8%
Related predictions
Primeira Liga
Rio Ave FC vs FC Famalicão
Home
21%
Draw
20%
Away
59%
- Predicted score: 1–2Over 2.5: 70%BTTS: 66%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Primeira Liga
Moreirense FC vs CF Estrela da Amadora
Home
24%
Draw
19%
Away
57%
- Predicted score: 1–2Over 2.5: 75%BTTS: 71%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Primeira Liga
CS Marítimo vs CD Santa Clara
Home
12%
Draw
19%
Away
68%
- Predicted score: 0–2Over 2.5: 54%BTTS: 46%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.