Ligue 1
ES Troyes AC vs Le Havre AC
Home
39%
Draw
25%
Away
36%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 56%BTTS: 59%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Ligue 1 · Matchweek 6
ES Troyes AC vs Olympique de Marseille Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sun 11 Oct, 19:45 (BST)
- Competition
- Ligue 1
- Round
- Matchweek 6
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
ES Troyes AC win35%
Draw26%
Olympique de Marseille win39%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- BTTS yes
- 53%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 74%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 27%
- BTTS no
- 47%
- Expected goals
- 1.27 – 1.36
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
ES Troyes AC have scored at a below-average rate at home, which limits the model's home goal expectation. Statistically the two sides are closely matched, so the draw probability stays comparatively high. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.9%
- 0–07.2%
- 0–26.7%
- 2–05.8%
Team comparison
| Statistic | ES Troyes AC | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals per match | 0.70 | 2.20 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.70 | 1.40 |
| Home / away goals scored | 5 | 9 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 11 | 6 |
| Last 5 points | 4 | 15 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 3 | 15 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 6 | 6 |
| Win percentage | 20% | 60% |
ES Troyes AC recent form
LLDWL
Olympique de Marseille recent form
WWWWW
Recent form
ES Troyes AC
1W 1D 3L in the last 5 · 4 scored, 11 conceded
- Lat Angers SCO0–2
- Lat Lille OSC0–2
- Lvs RC Strasbourg Alsace2–6
- Wat FC Lorient2–1
- Dvs Paris FC0–0
Olympique de Marseille
1W 0D 4L in the last 5 · 7 scored, 8 conceded
- Lvs Paris Saint-Germain1–2
- Lat Stade Rennais FC 19010–1
- Lvs Paris FC2–3
- Lat AS Monaco FC0–2
- Wvs RC Strasbourg Alsace4–0
Where to watch (UK)
Ligue 1 matches are typically shown in the UK by TNT Sports. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 19:45 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 20 September 2026
Last updated: 11 October 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
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Racing Club de Lens vs Toulouse FC
Home
47%
Draw
22%
Away
31%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 68%BTTS: 68%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris FC
Home
45%
Draw
25%
Away
31%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 58%
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.