Bundesliga · Matchweek 5

Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen Prediction

Fri 9 Oct, 19:30

Match essentials

Kick-off (UK): Fri 9 Oct, 19:30 (BST)
Kick-off (local): Fri 9 Oct, 20:30 (CEST)
Competition: Bundesliga
Round: Matchweek 5
Venue: Dortmund, Germany

United Matchday prediction

Borussia Dortmund win82%

Draw11%

SV Werder Bremen win7%

Predicted score: 3–0
Over 2.5 goals: 77%
Under 2.5 goals: 23%
BTTS yes: 56%

Over 1.5 goals: 91%
Over 3.5 goals: 58%
BTTS no: 44%
Expected goals: 3.22 – 0.87

Low confidence

Why the model favours this outcome

Borussia Dortmund's home defensive record is tighter than the competition average, which suppresses the away goal expectation. Combined attacking and defensive numbers point toward a higher-scoring game than average. Recent results also favour Borussia Dortmund, whose points-per-match rate over the last five games is above average. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.

Most likely scorelines

3–09.4%
2–08.7%
3–18.1%
2–17.6%
4–07.6%
4–16.6%
1–05.4%
5–04.9%

Team comparison

Statistic	Borussia Dortmund	SV Werder Bremen
Matches played	4	4
Points per match	3.00	1.75
Goals per match	2.25	2.00
Goals conceded per match	0.50	2.00
Home / away goals scored	5	2
Home / away goals conceded	0	5
Last 5 points	12	7
Last 5 goals scored	9	8
Last 5 goals conceded	2	8
Win percentage	100%	50%

Borussia Dortmund recent form

WWWW

SV Werder Bremen recent form

LWDW

Recent form

Borussia Dortmund

5W 0D 0L in the last 5 · 12 scored, 4 conceded

Wat VfB Stuttgart1–0
Wvs SC Paderborn 073–0
Wvs Villarreal CF3–2
Wat TSG 1899 Hoffenheim3–2
Wvs Hamburger SV2–0

SV Werder Bremen

2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 8 scored, 10 conceded

Wvs FC Augsburg3–2
Dat 1. FC Köln1–1
Wvs RB Leipzig3–1
Lat SC Freiburg1–4
Lvs Borussia Dortmund0–2

Team news

Borussia Dortmund

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SV Werder Bremen

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All SV Werder Bremen news →

Where to watch (UK)

Bundesliga matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports. Kick-off is Fri 9 Oct, 19:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.