Bundesliga
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund
Home
16%
Draw
18%
Away
67%
- Predicted score: 1–2Over 2.5: 69%BTTS: 62%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Bundesliga · Matchweek 5
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Fri 9 Oct, 19:30 (BST)
- Kick-off (local)
- Fri 9 Oct, 20:30 (CEST)
- Competition
- Bundesliga
- Round
- Matchweek 5
- Venue
- Dortmund, Germany
United Matchday prediction
Borussia Dortmund win82%
Draw11%
SV Werder Bremen win7%
- Predicted score
- 3–0
- Over 2.5 goals
- 77%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 23%
- BTTS yes
- 56%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 91%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 58%
- BTTS no
- 44%
- Expected goals
- 3.22 – 0.87
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Borussia Dortmund's home defensive record is tighter than the competition average, which suppresses the away goal expectation. Combined attacking and defensive numbers point toward a higher-scoring game than average. Recent results also favour Borussia Dortmund, whose points-per-match rate over the last five games is above average. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 3–09.4%
- 2–08.7%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–17.6%
- 4–07.6%
- 4–16.6%
- 1–05.4%
- 5–04.9%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Borussia Dortmund | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 9 | 9 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| Goals per match | 1.78 | 1.89 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.78 | 1.67 |
| Home / away goals scored | 10 | 7 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 3 | 10 |
| Last 5 points | 9 | 8 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 7 | 9 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 5 | 7 |
| Win percentage | 67% | 44% |
Borussia Dortmund recent form
DDWDW
SV Werder Bremen recent form
DDWWL
Recent form
Borussia Dortmund
5W 0D 0L in the last 5 · 12 scored, 4 conceded
- Wat VfB Stuttgart1–0
- Wvs SC Paderborn 073–0
- Wvs Villarreal CF3–2
- Wat TSG 1899 Hoffenheim3–2
- Wvs Hamburger SV2–0
SV Werder Bremen
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 8 scored, 10 conceded
- Wvs FC Augsburg3–2
- Dat 1. FC Köln1–1
- Wvs RB Leipzig3–1
- Lat SC Freiburg1–4
- Lvs Borussia Dortmund0–2
Team news
Where to watch (UK)
Bundesliga matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports. Kick-off is Fri 9 Oct, 19:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 18 September 2026
Last updated: 9 October 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
Bundesliga
FC Augsburg vs 1. FSV Mainz 05
Home
33%
Draw
20%
Away
46%
- Predicted score: 1–2Over 2.5: 77%BTTS: 75%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Bundesliga
SV Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV
Home
65%
Draw
18%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 72%BTTS: 65%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Bundesliga
Hamburger SV vs Bayern Munich
Home
13%
Draw
15%
Away
71%
- Predicted score: 1–2Over 2.5: 76%BTTS: 65%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.