Bundesliga · Matchweek 1

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV Prediction

United Matchday prediction

Borussia Dortmund win78%
Draw14%
Hamburger SV win8%
Predicted score
2–0
Over 2.5 goals
67%
Under 2.5 goals
33%
BTTS yes
49%
Over 1.5 goals
86%
Over 3.5 goals
45%
BTTS no
51%
Expected goals
2.69 – 0.76

High confidence

Why the model favours this outcome

Home scoring numbers favour Borussia Dortmund, who have created goals at an above-average rate in front of their own crowd. The model expects fewer away goals given Borussia Dortmund's home defensive numbers. The model expects a relatively open scoring environment in this match. Recent results also favour Borussia Dortmund, whose points-per-match rate over the last five games is above average.

Most likely scorelines

  • 2011.5%
  • 3010.3%
  • 218.7%
  • 108.6%
  • 317.8%
  • 406.9%
  • 116.5%
  • 415.3%

Model transparency

Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 13 August 2026
Last updated: 13 August 2026
Status: Live

How predictions work

Prediction record

No graded predictions yet — accuracy is published as soon as matches are settled.

Related predictions

Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.