Bundesliga
FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05
Home
32%
Draw
23%
Away
44%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 60%BTTS: 62%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Bundesliga · Matchweek 6
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sun 18 Oct, 14:30 (BST)
- Competition
- Bundesliga
- Round
- Matchweek 6
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Bayer 04 Leverkusen win57%
Draw20%
SC Freiburg win23%
- Predicted score
- 2–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 31%
- BTTS yes
- 66%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 87%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 47%
- BTTS no
- 34%
- Expected goals
- 2.21 – 1.34
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
The model credits SC Freiburg with an above-average away defensive record. SC Freiburg carry an above-average away scoring record into the fixture. The model expects a relatively open scoring environment in this match. SC Freiburg arrive in stronger recent form, which the model weights alongside season-long numbers.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–07.0%
- 3–16.9%
- 1–06.4%
- 2–26.3%
- 1–25.7%
- 3–05.2%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 4 | 4 |
| Points per match | 1.75 | 2.50 |
| Goals per match | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| Home / away goals scored | 6 | 3 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 0 | 2 |
| Last 5 points | 7 | 10 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 10 | 12 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 5 | 3 |
| Win percentage | 50% | 75% |
Bayer 04 Leverkusen recent form
LWDW
SC Freiburg recent form
WWWD
Recent form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
2W 2D 1L in the last 5 · 11 scored, 6 conceded
- Wvs RB Leipzig2–0
- Dat FC Augsburg2–2
- Wvs 1. FC Union Berlin4–0
- Lat SV 07 Elversberg2–3
- Dvs Hamburger SV1–1
SC Freiburg
4W 1D 0L in the last 5 · 16 scored, 4 conceded
- Dat Eintracht Frankfurt2–2
- Wvs Borussia Mönchengladbach5–0
- Wat SC Paderborn 071–0
- Wvs SV Werder Bremen4–1
- Wvs RB Leipzig4–1
Team news
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Man United quoted £43m to complete transfer for 'tailor-made' target
- Newcastle United 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen: Mason Miley shows grit but Matthias Jaissle wants signings
- Jarell Quansah: Arsenal in talks with Bayer Leverkusen over signing England and former Liverpool defender
- Arsenal open talks with Bayer Leverkusen over deal for Jarell Quansah
Where to watch (UK)
Bundesliga matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 14:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 27 September 2026
Last updated: 29 September 2026
Status: Live
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 510
- 1X2 accuracy
- 46.9%
- BTTS accuracy
- 57.5%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.8%
- Exact score
- 10.6%
Related predictions
Bundesliga
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
Home
37%
Draw
21%
Away
42%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 73%BTTS: 72%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.