Bundesliga
FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05
Home
32%
Draw
23%
Away
44%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 60%BTTS: 62%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Bundesliga · Matchweek 4
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sun 20 Sept, 14:30 (BST)
- Competition
- Bundesliga
- Round
- Matchweek 4
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Bayer 04 Leverkusen win68%
Draw16%
RB Leipzig win16%
- Predicted score
- 2–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 80%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 20%
- BTTS yes
- 71%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 93%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 62%
- BTTS no
- 29%
- Expected goals
- 2.87 – 1.39
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Home scoring numbers favour Bayer 04 Leverkusen, who have created goals at an above-average rate in front of their own crowd. Bayer 04 Leverkusen's home defensive record is tighter than the competition average, which suppresses the away goal expectation. Combined attacking and defensive numbers point toward a higher-scoring game than average. RB Leipzig arrive in stronger recent form, which the model weights alongside season-long numbers.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–18.1%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–05.8%
- 2–25.6%
- 1–15.6%
- 4–15.6%
- 3–05.6%
- 3–25.4%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 4 | 4 |
| Points per match | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Goals per match | 2.50 | 2.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Home / away goals scored | 6 | 1 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 0 | 5 |
| Last 5 points | 7 | 6 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 10 | 9 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 5 | 5 |
| Win percentage | 50% | 50% |
Bayer 04 Leverkusen recent form
LWDW
RB Leipzig recent form
WLWL
Recent form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1W 2D 2L in the last 5 · 10 scored, 9 conceded
- Dat FC Augsburg2–2
- Wvs 1. FC Union Berlin4–0
- Lat SV 07 Elversberg2–3
- Dvs Hamburger SV1–1
- Lat VfB Stuttgart1–3
RB Leipzig
2W 0D 3L in the last 5 · 11 scored, 11 conceded
- Wvs Hamburger SV5–0
- Lat Como 19071–4
- Lat SV Werder Bremen1–3
- Wvs Borussia Mönchengladbach3–0
- Lat SC Freiburg1–4
Team news
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Man United quoted £43m to complete transfer for 'tailor-made' target
- Newcastle United 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen: Mason Miley shows grit but Matthias Jaissle wants signings
- Jarell Quansah: Arsenal in talks with Bayer Leverkusen over signing England and former Liverpool defender
- Arsenal open talks with Bayer Leverkusen over deal for Jarell Quansah
Where to watch (UK)
Bundesliga matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports. Kick-off is Sun 20 Sept, 14:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 30 August 2026
Last updated: 20 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 510
- 1X2 accuracy
- 46.9%
- BTTS accuracy
- 57.5%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.8%
- Exact score
- 10.6%
Related predictions
Bundesliga
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
Home
37%
Draw
21%
Away
42%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 73%BTTS: 72%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Bundesliga
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg
Home
57%
Draw
20%
Away
23%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 69%BTTS: 66%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.