Premier League
Manchester United FC vs Tottenham Hotspur FC
Home
69%
Draw
20%
Away
12%
- Predicted score: 2–0Over 2.5: 52%BTTS: 44%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 3
Arsenal FC vs Chelsea FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sun 6 Sept, 16:30 (BST)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 3
- Venue
- Emirates Stadium, London, England
United Matchday prediction
Arsenal FC win66%
Draw17%
Chelsea FC win17%
- Predicted score
- 2–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 78%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 22%
- BTTS yes
- 70%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 91%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 58%
- BTTS no
- 30%
- Expected goals
- 2.72 – 1.38
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Home scoring numbers favour Arsenal FC, who have created goals at an above-average rate in front of their own crowd. Chelsea FC carry an above-average away scoring record into the fixture. The model expects a relatively open scoring environment in this match. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–18.5%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–16.2%
- 2–06.2%
- 2–25.8%
- 3–05.6%
- 3–25.3%
- 4–15.2%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Arsenal FC | Chelsea FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 5 | 5 |
| Points per match | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals per match | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| Home / away goals scored | 5 | 4 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 1 | 7 |
| Last 5 points | 12 | 7 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 8 | 10 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 4 | 12 |
| Win percentage | 80% | 40% |
Arsenal FC recent form
WWWWL
Chelsea FC recent form
WWLDL
Recent form
Arsenal FC
4W 0D 1L in the last 5 · 11 scored, 6 conceded
- Wat Aston Villa FC1–0
- Wvs Coventry City FC3–0
- Lat Paris Saint-Germain4–5
- Wat Crystal Palace FC2–1
- Wvs Burnley FC1–0
Chelsea FC
3W 1D 1L in the last 5 · 11 scored, 9 conceded
- Wvs Brighton & Hove Albion FC4–3
- Wat Fulham FC3–2
- Lat Sunderland AFC1–2
- Wvs Tottenham Hotspur FC2–1
- Dat Liverpool FC1–1
Team news
Arsenal FC
- Kai Havertz returning to Arsenal to be assessed after suffering injury for Germany against Netherlands
- Transfer rumors, news: Arsenal want Yildiz as Al Hilal add Martinelli to short list
- Arsenal starlet Max Dowman to link up with England senior squad after mass withdrawals - Paper Talk
- Mykhailo Mudryk preferred Arsenal move before £88m Chelsea transfer - Paper Talk
Chelsea FC
- Premier League: 10 things to look out for this weekend
- Transfer rumors, news: Chelsea join race to sign Monaco's Camara
- Lamine Camara: Monaco pull out of selling midfielder to Chelsea in £47m deal after Blues agreed deal for Enzo
- ‘A great feeling’: Mykhailo Mudryk seals loan move from Chelsea to Tottenham
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sun 6 Sept, 16:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 23 August 2026
Last updated: 6 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 510
- 1X2 accuracy
- 46.9%
- BTTS accuracy
- 57.5%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.8%
- Exact score
- 10.6%
Related predictions
Premier League
Coventry City FC vs Newcastle United FC
Home
16%
Draw
20%
Away
64%
- Predicted score: 0–2Over 2.5: 60%BTTS: 55%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Premier League
Leeds United FC vs Manchester United FC
Home
53%
Draw
24%
Away
22%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 50%BTTS: 51%
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Premier League
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Crystal Palace FC
Home
75%
Draw
15%
Away
10%
- Predicted score: 2–0Over 2.5: 67%BTTS: 52%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.