Bundesliga · Matchweek 1

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction

United Matchday prediction

1. FSV Mainz 05 win40%
Draw24%
SC Paderborn 07 win36%
Predicted score
1–1
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Under 2.5 goals
40%
BTTS yes
62%
Over 1.5 goals
82%
Over 3.5 goals
38%
BTTS no
38%
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.50

Low confidence

Why the model favours this outcome

The model sees 1. FSV Mainz 05's home attacking output as weaker than the Bundesliga baseline. The model expects a relatively open scoring environment in this match. The model sees relatively little separation between the two teams. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1110.8%
  • 218.6%
  • 128.1%
  • 107.2%
  • 016.8%
  • 226.5%
  • 205.8%
  • 025.1%

Model transparency

Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 13 August 2026
Last updated: 13 August 2026
Status: Live

How predictions work

Prediction record

No graded predictions yet — accuracy is published as soon as matches are settled.

Related predictions

Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.