Bundesliga
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund
Home
16%
Draw
18%
Away
67%
- Predicted score: 1–2Over 2.5: 69%BTTS: 62%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Bundesliga · Matchweek 5
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 10 Oct, 14:30 (BST)
- Competition
- Bundesliga
- Round
- Matchweek 5
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
1. FSV Mainz 05 win41%
Draw21%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen win38%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 74%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 26%
- BTTS yes
- 73%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 90%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 54%
- BTTS no
- 27%
- Expected goals
- 1.96 – 1.90
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
The model sees 1. FSV Mainz 05's home attacking output as weaker than the Bundesliga baseline. Bayer 04 Leverkusen carry an above-average away scoring record into the fixture. The model expects a relatively open scoring environment in this match. The model sees relatively little separation between the two teams.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–17.9%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–15.0%
- 3–24.8%
- 1–34.7%
- 2–34.6%
Team comparison
| Statistic | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 9 | 9 |
| Points per match | 1.11 | 1.78 |
| Goals per match | 2.00 | 2.22 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.11 | 1.89 |
| Home / away goals scored | 7 | 10 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 12 | 12 |
| Last 5 points | 3 | 9 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 8 | 10 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 13 | 12 |
| Win percentage | 33% | 56% |
1. FSV Mainz 05 recent form
LWLLL
Bayer 04 Leverkusen recent form
WWLLW
Recent form
1. FSV Mainz 05
3W 1D 1L in the last 5 · 12 scored, 6 conceded
- Wat Borussia Mönchengladbach4–3
- Lvs Eintracht Frankfurt1–3
- Wat Hamburger SV5–0
- Dvs SC Paderborn 070–0
- Wat 1. FC Heidenheim 18462–0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
2W 2D 1L in the last 5 · 11 scored, 6 conceded
- Wvs RB Leipzig2–0
- Dat FC Augsburg2–2
- Wvs 1. FC Union Berlin4–0
- Lat SV 07 Elversberg2–3
- Dvs Hamburger SV1–1
Team news
Where to watch (UK)
Bundesliga matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 14:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 19 September 2026
Last updated: 10 October 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
Bundesliga
FC Augsburg vs 1. FSV Mainz 05
Home
33%
Draw
20%
Away
46%
- Predicted score: 1–2Over 2.5: 77%BTTS: 75%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Bundesliga
SV Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV
Home
65%
Draw
18%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 72%BTTS: 65%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Bundesliga
Hamburger SV vs Bayern Munich
Home
13%
Draw
15%
Away
71%
- Predicted score: 1–2Over 2.5: 76%BTTS: 65%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.