Bundesliga
FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05
Home
32%
Draw
23%
Away
44%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 60%BTTS: 62%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Bundesliga · Matchweek 5
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 10 Oct, 14:30 (BST)
- Competition
- Bundesliga
- Round
- Matchweek 5
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
1. FSV Mainz 05 win41%
Draw21%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen win38%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 74%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 26%
- BTTS yes
- 73%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 90%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 54%
- BTTS no
- 27%
- Expected goals
- 1.96 – 1.90
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
The model sees 1. FSV Mainz 05's home attacking output as weaker than the Bundesliga baseline. Bayer 04 Leverkusen carry an above-average away scoring record into the fixture. The model expects a relatively open scoring environment in this match. The model sees relatively little separation between the two teams.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–17.8%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–15.0%
- 3–24.8%
- 1–34.7%
- 2–34.6%
Team comparison
| Statistic | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 4 | 4 |
| Points per match | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Goals per match | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Home / away goals scored | 1 | 4 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 3 | 5 |
| Last 5 points | 7 | 7 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 10 | 10 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 6 | 5 |
| Win percentage | 50% | 50% |
1. FSV Mainz 05 recent form
DWLW
Bayer 04 Leverkusen recent form
LWDW
Recent form
1. FSV Mainz 05
3W 1D 1L in the last 5 · 12 scored, 6 conceded
- Wat Borussia Mönchengladbach4–3
- Lvs Eintracht Frankfurt1–3
- Wat Hamburger SV5–0
- Dvs SC Paderborn 070–0
- Wat 1. FC Heidenheim 18462–0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
2W 2D 1L in the last 5 · 11 scored, 6 conceded
- Wvs RB Leipzig2–0
- Dat FC Augsburg2–2
- Wvs 1. FC Union Berlin4–0
- Lat SV 07 Elversberg2–3
- Dvs Hamburger SV1–1
Team news
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Man United quoted £43m to complete transfer for 'tailor-made' target
- Newcastle United 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen: Mason Miley shows grit but Matthias Jaissle wants signings
- Jarell Quansah: Arsenal in talks with Bayer Leverkusen over signing England and former Liverpool defender
- Arsenal open talks with Bayer Leverkusen over deal for Jarell Quansah
Where to watch (UK)
Bundesliga matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 14:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 19 September 2026
Last updated: 29 September 2026
Status: Live
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 510
- 1X2 accuracy
- 46.9%
- BTTS accuracy
- 57.5%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.8%
- Exact score
- 10.6%
Related predictions
Bundesliga
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
Home
37%
Draw
21%
Away
42%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 73%BTTS: 72%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Bundesliga
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg
Home
57%
Draw
20%
Away
23%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 69%BTTS: 66%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.