Primeira Liga
Vitória SC vs CF Estrela da Amadora
Home
62%
Draw
22%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 54%BTTS: 51%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Primeira Liga · Matchweek 5
Vitória SC vs Casa Pia AC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sun 6 Sept, 18:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Primeira Liga
- Round
- Matchweek 5
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Vitória SC win64%
Draw23%
Casa Pia AC win13%
- Predicted score
- 1–0
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 57%
- BTTS yes
- 39%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 69%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 22%
- BTTS no
- 61%
- Expected goals
- 1.74 – 0.65
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
The model sees Vitória SC's home attacking output as weaker than the Primeira Liga baseline. Casa Pia AC have conceded at a higher rate away from home than the competition average. The model expects fewer away goals given Vitória SC's home defensive numbers. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–015.9%
- 2–013.9%
- 1–110.3%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–19.0%
- 3–08.1%
- 0–15.9%
- 3–15.2%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Vitória SC | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 9 | 10 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals per match | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.89 | 1.90 |
| Home / away goals scored | 8 | 5 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 3 | 4 |
| Last 5 points | 5 | 7 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 7 | 5 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 5 | 5 |
| Win percentage | 22% | 20% |
Vitória SC recent form
DLWDL
Casa Pia AC recent form
WLWLD
Recent form
Vitória SC
1W 0D 1L in the last 2 · 1 scored, 1 conceded
- Lat Sporting Clube de Braga0–1
- Wvs CD Nacional1–0
Casa Pia AC
0W 0D 3L in the last 3 · 0 scored, 10 conceded
- Lvs Moreirense FC0–1
- Lat Gil Vicente FC0–2
- Lvs Sport Lisboa e Benfica0–7
Where to watch (UK)
Primeira Liga matches are typically shown in the UK by Premier Sports. Kick-off is Sun 6 Sept, 18:00 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 23 August 2026
Last updated: 6 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
Primeira Liga
Casa Pia AC vs Sporting Clube de Braga
Home
14%
Draw
24%
Away
62%
- Predicted score: 0–1Over 2.5: 39%BTTS: 38%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.