Championship
Swansea City AFC vs West Bromwich Albion FC
Home
34%
Draw
27%
Away
39%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 45%BTTS: 50%
High confidenceFull prediction
Championship · Matchweek 16
Southampton FC vs Derby County FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 21 Nov, 12:30 (GMT)
- Competition
- Championship
- Round
- Matchweek 16
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Southampton FC win83%
Draw11%
Derby County FC win6%
- Predicted score
- 3–0
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 28%
- BTTS yes
- 48%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 89%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 51%
- BTTS no
- 52%
- Expected goals
- 3.02 – 0.70
High confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Southampton FC have produced a stronger-than-average attacking record at home in this competition. Derby County FC have conceded at a higher rate away from home than the competition average. The model expects fewer away goals given Southampton FC's home defensive numbers. The model expects a relatively open scoring environment in this match.
Most likely scorelines
- 3–011.2%
- 2–011.1%
- 4–08.4%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–07.3%
- 4–15.9%
- 1–15.1%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Southampton FC | Derby County FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 15 | 14 |
| Points per match | 1.87 | 0.71 |
| Goals per match | 1.93 | 0.93 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Home / away goals scored | 20 | 6 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 5 | 13 |
| Last 5 points | 8 | 4 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 8 | 5 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 5 | 11 |
| Win percentage | 53% | 14% |
Southampton FC recent form
DWWDL
Derby County FC recent form
LDLLW
Recent form
Southampton FC
2W 2D 1L in the last 5 · 8 scored, 5 conceded
- Lat Preston North End FC0–1
- Dat West Bromwich Albion FC1–1
- Wvs Queens Park Rangers FC4–1
- Wat West Ham United FC3–2
- Dvs Bolton Wanderers FC0–0
Derby County FC
1W 1D 3L in the last 5 · 5 scored, 11 conceded
- Wvs Bolton Wanderers FC3–1
- Lvs Norwich City FC0–4
- Lat Millwall FC1–4
- Dat Sheffield United FC1–1
- Lvs Stoke City FC0–1
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 31 October 2026
Last updated: 13 November 2026
Status: Live
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
Championship
West Ham United FC vs Preston North End FC
Home
76%
Draw
14%
Away
10%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 75%BTTS: 60%
High confidenceFull prediction
Championship
Middlesbrough FC vs Swansea City AFC
Home
68%
Draw
17%
Away
15%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 74%BTTS: 65%
High confidenceFull prediction
Championship
Norwich City FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC
Home
63%
Draw
18%
Away
19%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 73%BTTS: 67%
High confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.