Primera Division
Deportivo Alavés vs RC Deportivo La Coruña
Home
35%
Draw
27%
Away
38%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 45%BTTS: 51%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Primera Division · Matchweek 5
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs Atlético Madrid Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sun 13 Sept, 20:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Primera Division
- Round
- Matchweek 5
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Real Sociedad de Fútbol win41%
Draw25%
Atlético Madrid win34%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- BTTS yes
- 57%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 78%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 32%
- BTTS no
- 43%
- Expected goals
- 1.50 – 1.34
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Real Sociedad de Fútbol have scored at a below-average rate at home, which limits the model's home goal expectation. Real Sociedad de Fútbol's home defensive record is tighter than the competition average, which suppresses the away goal expectation. Statistically the two sides are closely matched, so the draw probability stays comparatively high. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–17.8%
- 2–06.6%
- 2–25.9%
- 0–05.8%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 12 | 12 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 2.33 |
| Goals per match | 1.75 | 1.92 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Home / away goals scored | 8 | 11 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 7 | 5 |
| Last 5 points | 12 | 12 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 12 | 7 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 7 | 3 |
| Win percentage | 58% | 75% |
Real Sociedad de Fútbol recent form
WWWLW
Atlético Madrid recent form
WWWWL
Recent form
Real Sociedad de Fútbol
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 6 scored, 8 conceded
- Wat Elche CF3–2
- Dvs RC Celta de Vigo0–0
- Wvs RCD Espanyol de Barcelona2–1
- Lat Real Madrid1–4
- Lat Real Betis Balompié0–1
Atlético Madrid
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 8 scored, 8 conceded
- Lat Liverpool FC1–2
- Lat Athletic Club0–3
- Wat Sevilla FC3–1
- Dvs Villarreal CF2–2
- Wvs Málaga CF2–0
Team news
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 23 August 2026
Last updated: 13 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
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Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Valencia CF
Home
47%
Draw
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Away
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- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 49%BTTS: 52%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
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Real Madrid vs RC Celta de Vigo
Home
80%
Draw
15%
Away
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CA Osasuna vs Málaga CF
Home
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Draw
28%
Away
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.