Primera Division
Málaga CF vs RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
Home
27%
Draw
28%
Away
45%
- Predicted score: 0–1Over 2.5: 40%BTTS: 46%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Primera Division · Matchweek 5
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs Atlético Madrid Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sun 13 Sept, 20:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Primera Division
- Round
- Matchweek 5
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Real Sociedad de Fútbol win41%
Draw25%
Atlético Madrid win34%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- BTTS yes
- 57%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 78%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 32%
- BTTS no
- 43%
- Expected goals
- 1.50 – 1.34
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Real Sociedad de Fútbol have scored at a below-average rate at home, which limits the model's home goal expectation. Real Sociedad de Fútbol's home defensive record is tighter than the competition average, which suppresses the away goal expectation. Statistically the two sides are closely matched, so the draw probability stays comparatively high. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–17.8%
- 2–06.6%
- 2–25.9%
- 0–05.8%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 7 | 7 |
| Points per match | 1.43 | 2.29 |
| Goals per match | 1.29 | 2.29 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.86 | 1.00 |
| Home / away goals scored | 2 | 6 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 4 | 4 |
| Last 5 points | 10 | 12 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 8 | 12 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 8 | 5 |
| Win percentage | 43% | 71% |
Real Sociedad de Fútbol recent form
WDWLW
Atlético Madrid recent form
WLWWW
Recent form
Real Sociedad de Fútbol
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 6 scored, 8 conceded
- Wat Elche CF3–2
- Dvs RC Celta de Vigo0–0
- Wvs RCD Espanyol de Barcelona2–1
- Lat Real Madrid1–4
- Lat Real Betis Balompié0–1
Atlético Madrid
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 8 scored, 8 conceded
- Lat Liverpool FC1–2
- Lat Athletic Club0–3
- Wat Sevilla FC3–1
- Dvs Villarreal CF2–2
- Wvs Málaga CF2–0
Team news
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 23 August 2026
Last updated: 13 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 510
- 1X2 accuracy
- 46.9%
- BTTS accuracy
- 57.5%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.8%
- Exact score
- 10.6%
Related predictions
Primera Division
Real Racing Club de Santander vs Valencia CF
Home
53%
Draw
22%
Away
25%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 62%BTTS: 61%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Primera Division
Levante UD vs Sevilla FC
Home
35%
Draw
21%
Away
44%
- Predicted score: 1–2Over 2.5: 73%BTTS: 72%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
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CA Osasuna vs Real Racing Club de Santander
Home
51%
Draw
23%
Away
26%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 60%BTTS: 60%
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.