Championship · Matchweek 11

Middlesbrough FC vs Cardiff City FC Prediction

Match essentials

Kick-off (UK)
Sat 17 Oct, 12:30 (BST)
Competition
Championship
Round
Matchweek 11
Venue
To be confirmed

United Matchday prediction

Middlesbrough FC win65%
Draw18%
Cardiff City FC win17%
Predicted score
2–1
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Under 2.5 goals
29%
BTTS yes
64%
Over 1.5 goals
88%
Over 3.5 goals
50%
BTTS no
36%
Expected goals
2.48 – 1.21

Medium confidence

Why the model favours this outcome

Home scoring numbers favour Middlesbrough FC, who have created goals at an above-average rate in front of their own crowd. Combined attacking and defensive numbers point toward a higher-scoring game than average. Recent results also favour Middlesbrough FC, whose points-per-match rate over the last five games is above average.

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.3%
  • 2–07.7%
  • 3–17.7%
  • 1–17.5%
  • 3–06.4%
  • 1–06.2%
  • 2–25.6%
  • 4–14.8%

Team comparison

StatisticMiddlesbrough FCCardiff City FC
Matches played78
Points per match1.710.88
Goals per match2.001.25
Goals conceded per match1.571.50
Home / away goals scored93
Home / away goals conceded67
Last 5 points94
Last 5 goals scored105
Last 5 goals conceded87
Win percentage43%13%

Middlesbrough FC recent form

DWWDD

Cardiff City FC recent form

LLDLW

Recent form

Middlesbrough FC

2W 3D 0L in the last 5 · 10 scored, 8 conceded

  • Dat Birmingham City FC2–2
  • Dvs Millwall FC2–2
  • Wvs Norwich City FC4–3
  • Wat Queens Park Rangers FC1–0
  • Dat Burnley FC1–1

Cardiff City FC

1W 1D 3L in the last 5 · 5 scored, 7 conceded

  • Wvs Charlton Athletic FC3–1
  • Lat Bolton Wanderers FC0–1
  • Dvs Stoke City FC1–1
  • Lat Portsmouth FC0–2
  • Lat Queens Park Rangers FC1–2

Model transparency

Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 26 September 2026
Last updated: 29 September 2026
Status: Live

How predictions work

Prediction record

Matches predicted
510
1X2 accuracy
46.9%
BTTS accuracy
57.5%
Over 2.5 accuracy
58.8%
Exact score
10.6%

Related predictions

Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.