Primeira Liga
Vitória SC vs CF Estrela da Amadora
Home
62%
Draw
22%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 54%BTTS: 51%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Primeira Liga · Matchweek 5
GD Estoril Praia vs FC Arouca Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Mon 7 Sept, 20:15 (BST)
- Competition
- Primeira Liga
- Round
- Matchweek 5
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
GD Estoril Praia win24%
Draw27%
FC Arouca win50%
- Predicted score
- 0–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- BTTS yes
- 46%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 69%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 22%
- BTTS no
- 54%
- Expected goals
- 0.92 – 1.46
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
GD Estoril Praia have scored at a below-average rate at home, which limits the model's home goal expectation. FC Arouca arrive in stronger recent form, which the model weights alongside season-long numbers. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.5%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–29.9%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–15.7%
- 0–34.8%
Team comparison
| Statistic | GD Estoril Praia | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 9 | 10 |
| Points per match | 0.11 | 1.70 |
| Goals per match | 0.44 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Home / away goals scored | 2 | 3 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 7 | 5 |
| Last 5 points | 0 | 10 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 3 | 5 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 12 | 3 |
| Win percentage | 0% | 50% |
GD Estoril Praia recent form
LLLLL
FC Arouca recent form
DWWWL
Recent form
GD Estoril Praia
0W 0D 3L in the last 3 · 1 scored, 6 conceded
- Lat Sport Lisboa e Benfica1–2
- Lvs Rio Ave FC0–2
- Lat CD Nacional0–2
FC Arouca
2W 0D 1L in the last 3 · 6 scored, 3 conceded
- Wvs CS Marítimo2–1
- Lat FC Porto0–2
- Wvs Moreirense FC4–0
Where to watch (UK)
Primeira Liga matches are typically shown in the UK by Premier Sports. Kick-off is Mon 7 Sept, 20:15 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 23 August 2026
Last updated: 7 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
Primeira Liga
Casa Pia AC vs Sporting Clube de Braga
Home
14%
Draw
24%
Away
62%
- Predicted score: 0–1Over 2.5: 39%BTTS: 38%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.