Primeira Liga
Vitória SC vs CF Estrela da Amadora
Home
62%
Draw
22%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 54%BTTS: 51%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Primeira Liga · Matchweek 8
FC Famalicão vs FC Alverca Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Mon 12 Oct, 20:15 (BST)
- Competition
- Primeira Liga
- Round
- Matchweek 8
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
FC Famalicão win38%
Draw26%
FC Alverca win36%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- BTTS yes
- 55%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 75%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 29%
- BTTS no
- 45%
- Expected goals
- 1.38 – 1.33
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
FC Famalicão have scored at a below-average rate at home, which limits the model's home goal expectation. Away defensive numbers work against FC Alverca, who have shipped goals above the Primeira Liga average on the road. FC Famalicão's home defensive record is tighter than the competition average, which suppresses the away goal expectation. Statistically the two sides are closely matched, so the draw probability stays comparatively high.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 1–09.2%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.1%
- 0–06.7%
- 2–06.3%
- 0–25.9%
Team comparison
| Statistic | FC Famalicão | FC Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 9 |
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.22 |
| Goals per match | 1.40 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.30 | 1.22 |
| Home / away goals scored | 4 | 8 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 7 | 6 |
| Last 5 points | 9 | 7 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 10 | 6 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 7 | 4 |
| Win percentage | 30% | 33% |
FC Famalicão recent form
WLWLW
FC Alverca recent form
WWLLD
Recent form
FC Famalicão
1W 3D 1L in the last 5 · 7 scored, 4 conceded
- Wat CD Nacional4–0
- Dvs Sporting Clube de Portugal1–1
- Dat CF Estrela da Amadora2–2
- Dvs Gil Vicente FC0–0
- Lat CD Santa Clara0–1
FC Alverca
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 7 scored, 7 conceded
- Wvs Rio Ave FC1–0
- Wat CD Nacional3–1
- Lvs Sporting Clube de Braga1–2
- Dvs CD Santa Clara1–1
- Lat Sporting Clube de Portugal1–3
Where to watch (UK)
Primeira Liga matches are typically shown in the UK by Premier Sports. Kick-off is Mon 12 Oct, 20:15 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 21 September 2026
Last updated: 12 October 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
Primeira Liga
Casa Pia AC vs Sporting Clube de Braga
Home
14%
Draw
24%
Away
62%
- Predicted score: 0–1Over 2.5: 39%BTTS: 38%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.