UEFA Champions League · Matchweek 3

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal FC Prediction

Match essentials

Kick-off (UK)
Wed 21 Oct, 20:00 (BST)
Kick-off (local)
Wed 21 Oct, 21:00 (CEST)
Competition
UEFA Champions League
Round
Matchweek 3
Venue
Munich, Germany

United Matchday prediction

Bayern Munich win74%
Draw14%
Arsenal FC win12%
Predicted score
3–1
Over 2.5 goals
80%
Under 2.5 goals
20%
BTTS yes
67%
Over 1.5 goals
93%
Over 3.5 goals
62%
BTTS no
33%
Expected goals
3.07 – 1.23

Low confidence

Why the model favours this outcome

Bayern Munich have produced a stronger-than-average attacking record at home in this competition. The model credits Arsenal FC with an above-average away defensive record. The model expects fewer away goals given Bayern Munich's home defensive numbers. The model expects a relatively open scoring environment in this match.

Most likely scorelines

  • 3–18.1%
  • 2–17.9%
  • 3–06.6%
  • 2–06.4%
  • 4–16.2%
  • 1–15.1%
  • 4–05.1%
  • 3–25.0%

Team comparison

StatisticBayern MunichArsenal FC
Matches played11
Points per match3.003.00
Goals per match5.001.00
Goals conceded per match0.000.00
Home / away goals scored51
Home / away goals conceded00
Last 5 points33
Last 5 goals scored51
Last 5 goals conceded00
Win percentage100%100%

Bayern Munich recent form

W

Arsenal FC recent form

W

Recent form

Bayern Munich

4W 1D 0L in the last 5 · 19 scored, 2 conceded

  • Wvs 1. FC Union Berlin7–0
  • Wat SV 07 Elversberg2–1
  • Wvs FK Bodø/Glimt5–0
  • Dat FC Schalke 040–0
  • Wvs VfB Stuttgart5–1

Arsenal FC

4W 0D 1L in the last 5 · 6 scored, 4 conceded

  • Lat Brighton & Hove Albion FC0–3
  • Wat Sunderland AFC2–0
  • Wat SSC Napoli1–0
  • Wvs Chelsea FC2–1
  • Wat Aston Villa FC1–0

Team news

Where to watch (UK)

UEFA Champions League matches are typically shown in the UK by TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected Tuesday tie). Kick-off is Wed 21 Oct, 20:00 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.

Model transparency

Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 30 September 2026
Last updated: 30 September 2026
Status: Live

How predictions work

Prediction record

Matches predicted
510
1X2 accuracy
46.9%
BTTS accuracy
57.5%
Over 2.5 accuracy
58.8%
Exact score
10.6%

Related predictions

Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.