Championship
Swansea City AFC vs West Bromwich Albion FC
Home
34%
Draw
27%
Away
39%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 45%BTTS: 50%
High confidenceFull prediction
Championship · Matchweek 18
Derby County FC vs Watford FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 (GMT)
- Competition
- Championship
- Round
- Matchweek 18
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Derby County FC win38%
Draw28%
Watford FC win34%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 57%
- BTTS yes
- 49%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 69%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 22%
- BTTS no
- 51%
- Expected goals
- 1.24 – 1.15
High confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
The model sees Derby County FC's home attacking output as weaker than the Championship baseline. The model sees relatively little separation between the two teams.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–09.2%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–07.0%
- 0–26.1%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Derby County FC | Watford FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 14 | 15 |
| Points per match | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| Goals per match | 0.93 | 0.87 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.53 |
| Home / away goals scored | 7 | 4 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 15 | 14 |
| Last 5 points | 4 | 7 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 5 | 5 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 11 | 4 |
| Win percentage | 14% | 27% |
Derby County FC recent form
LDLLW
Watford FC recent form
WLLWD
Recent form
Derby County FC
1W 1D 3L in the last 5 · 5 scored, 11 conceded
- Wvs Bolton Wanderers FC3–1
- Lvs Norwich City FC0–4
- Lat Millwall FC1–4
- Dat Sheffield United FC1–1
- Lvs Stoke City FC0–1
Watford FC
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 5 scored, 4 conceded
- Dvs Middlesbrough FC0–0
- Wvs Lincoln City FC1–0
- Lat Norwich City FC2–3
- Lat Wolverhampton Wanderers FC0–1
- Wvs Charlton Athletic FC2–0
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 7 November 2026
Last updated: 13 November 2026
Status: Live
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
Championship
West Ham United FC vs Preston North End FC
Home
76%
Draw
14%
Away
10%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 75%BTTS: 60%
High confidenceFull prediction
Championship
Middlesbrough FC vs Swansea City AFC
Home
68%
Draw
17%
Away
15%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 74%BTTS: 65%
High confidenceFull prediction
Championship
Norwich City FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC
Home
63%
Draw
18%
Away
19%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 73%BTTS: 67%
High confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.