Championship
Swansea City AFC vs West Bromwich Albion FC
Home
34%
Draw
27%
Away
39%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 45%BTTS: 50%
High confidenceFull prediction
Championship · Matchweek 11
Derby County FC vs Stoke City FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Championship
- Round
- Matchweek 11
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Derby County FC win27%
Draw23%
Stoke City FC win50%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- BTTS yes
- 60%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 81%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 37%
- BTTS no
- 40%
- Expected goals
- 1.25 – 1.81
Medium confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
The model sees Derby County FC's home attacking output as weaker than the Championship baseline. The model expects a relatively open scoring environment in this match. Stoke City FC arrive in stronger recent form, which the model weights alongside season-long numbers.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.7%
- 2–26.0%
- 1–05.9%
- 1–35.8%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Derby County FC | Stoke City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 14 | 14 |
| Points per match | 0.71 | 2.07 |
| Goals per match | 0.93 | 1.64 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.14 |
| Home / away goals scored | 7 | 12 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 15 | 12 |
| Last 5 points | 4 | 13 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 5 | 7 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 11 | 2 |
| Win percentage | 14% | 64% |
Derby County FC recent form
LDLLW
Stoke City FC recent form
WDWWW
Recent form
Derby County FC
0W 2D 3L in the last 5 · 4 scored, 9 conceded
- Lat Queens Park Rangers FC1–4
- Dvs Wrexham AFC1–1
- Dat Burnley FC1–1
- Lvs Birmingham City FC1–2
- Lvs West Bromwich Albion FC0–1
Stoke City FC
3W 1D 1L in the last 5 · 9 scored, 7 conceded
- Lvs Middlesbrough FC2–3
- Wat Bolton Wanderers FC2–1
- Wvs Sheffield United FC2–1
- Wat Watford FC2–1
- Dat Cardiff City FC1–1
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 26 September 2026
Last updated: 17 October 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
Championship
West Ham United FC vs Preston North End FC
Home
76%
Draw
14%
Away
10%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 75%BTTS: 60%
High confidenceFull prediction
Championship
Middlesbrough FC vs Swansea City AFC
Home
68%
Draw
17%
Away
15%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 74%BTTS: 65%
High confidenceFull prediction
Championship
Norwich City FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC
Home
63%
Draw
18%
Away
19%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 73%BTTS: 67%
High confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.