Championship
West Ham United FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC
Home
67%
Draw
18%
Away
14%
- Predicted score: 2–0Over 2.5: 64%BTTS: 57%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Championship · Matchweek 11
Derby County FC vs Stoke City FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Championship
- Round
- Matchweek 11
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Derby County FC win28%
Draw23%
Stoke City FC win49%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 39%
- BTTS yes
- 62%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 82%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 39%
- BTTS no
- 38%
- Expected goals
- 1.33 – 1.82
Medium confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
The model sees Derby County FC's home attacking output as weaker than the Championship baseline. The model expects a relatively open scoring environment in this match. Stoke City FC arrive in stronger recent form, which the model weights alongside season-long numbers.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–17.8%
- 0–27.1%
- 2–16.9%
- 2–26.3%
- 1–35.7%
- 1–05.7%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Derby County FC | Stoke City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 7 | 7 |
| Points per match | 0.71 | 1.86 |
| Goals per match | 0.86 | 1.71 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.71 | 1.43 |
| Home / away goals scored | 3 | 5 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 8 | 9 |
| Last 5 points | 4 | 13 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 4 | 10 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 7 | 3 |
| Win percentage | 14% | 57% |
Derby County FC recent form
WLLLD
Stoke City FC recent form
WWDWW
Recent form
Derby County FC
1W 1D 3L in the last 5 · 4 scored, 7 conceded
- Dat Burnley FC1–1
- Lvs Birmingham City FC1–2
- Lvs West Bromwich Albion FC0–1
- Lat West Ham United FC0–3
- Wat Portsmouth FC2–0
Stoke City FC
4W 1D 0L in the last 5 · 10 scored, 3 conceded
- Wvs Sheffield United FC2–1
- Wat Watford FC2–1
- Dat Cardiff City FC1–1
- Wvs Charlton Athletic FC4–0
- Wvs Norwich City FC1–0
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 26 September 2026
Last updated: 29 September 2026
Status: Live
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 510
- 1X2 accuracy
- 46.9%
- BTTS accuracy
- 57.5%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.8%
- Exact score
- 10.6%
Related predictions
Championship
Swansea City AFC vs Norwich City FC
Home
60%
Draw
21%
Away
18%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 58%BTTS: 55%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Championship
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs Bolton Wanderers FC
Home
74%
Draw
14%
Away
12%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 76%BTTS: 63%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Championship
Birmingham City FC vs Preston North End FC
Home
52%
Draw
23%
Away
25%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 60%BTTS: 60%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.