Championship
Swansea City AFC vs West Bromwich Albion FC
Home
34%
Draw
27%
Away
39%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 45%BTTS: 50%
High confidenceFull prediction
Championship · Matchweek 7
Derby County FC vs Birmingham City FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 12 Sept, 12:30 (BST)
- Competition
- Championship
- Round
- Matchweek 7
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Derby County FC win28%
Draw24%
Birmingham City FC win48%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 44%
- BTTS yes
- 58%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 79%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 33%
- BTTS no
- 42%
- Expected goals
- 1.23 – 1.68
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Derby County FC have scored at a below-average rate at home, which limits the model's home goal expectation. Birmingham City FC's travelling attack has outperformed the competition average. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–19.1%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.9%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–25.8%
- 0–05.5%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Derby County FC | Birmingham City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 14 | 14 |
| Points per match | 0.71 | 2.00 |
| Goals per match | 0.93 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Home / away goals scored | 7 | 9 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 15 | 6 |
| Last 5 points | 4 | 12 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 5 | 11 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 11 | 3 |
| Win percentage | 14% | 57% |
Derby County FC recent form
LDLLW
Birmingham City FC recent form
WLWWW
Recent form
Derby County FC
1W 1D 3L in the last 5 · 4 scored, 9 conceded
- Lvs West Bromwich Albion FC0–1
- Lat West Ham United FC0–3
- Wat Portsmouth FC2–0
- Lvs Swansea City AFC0–3
- Dvs Cardiff City FC2–2
Birmingham City FC
1W 3D 1L in the last 5 · 8 scored, 8 conceded
- Lat Norwich City FC1–2
- Dvs Wolverhampton Wanderers FC2–2
- Dvs Southampton FC1–1
- Wat Wrexham AFC2–1
- Dvs Bristol City FC2–2
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 23 August 2026
Last updated: 12 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
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West Ham United FC vs Preston North End FC
Home
76%
Draw
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Away
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- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 75%BTTS: 60%
High confidenceFull prediction
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Middlesbrough FC vs Swansea City AFC
Home
68%
Draw
17%
Away
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- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 74%BTTS: 65%
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Norwich City FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC
Home
63%
Draw
18%
Away
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- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 73%BTTS: 67%
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.