Primera Division
Deportivo Alavés vs RC Deportivo La Coruña
Home
35%
Draw
27%
Away
38%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 45%BTTS: 51%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Primera Division · Matchweek 6
Atlético Madrid vs CA Osasuna Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Wed 16 Sept, 18:00 (BST)
- Kick-off (local)
- Wed 16 Sept, 19:00 (CEST)
- Competition
- Primera Division
- Round
- Matchweek 6
- Venue
- Madrid, Spain
United Matchday prediction
Atlético Madrid win67%
Draw17%
CA Osasuna win16%
- Predicted score
- 2–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 75%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 25%
- BTTS yes
- 67%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 90%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 55%
- BTTS no
- 33%
- Expected goals
- 2.66 – 1.26
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Away defensive numbers work against CA Osasuna, who have shipped goals above the Primera Division average on the road. Atlético Madrid's home defensive record is tighter than the competition average, which suppresses the away goal expectation. Combined attacking and defensive numbers point toward a higher-scoring game than average. Recent results also favour Atlético Madrid, whose points-per-match rate over the last five games is above average.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–07.0%
- 1–16.7%
- 3–06.2%
- 2–25.6%
- 1–05.3%
- 4–15.2%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Atlético Madrid | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 12 | 12 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals per match | 1.92 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.83 | 1.92 |
| Home / away goals scored | 12 | 7 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 5 | 19 |
| Last 5 points | 12 | 4 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 7 | 6 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 3 | 10 |
| Win percentage | 75% | 25% |
Atlético Madrid recent form
WWWWL
CA Osasuna recent form
LWLLD
Recent form
Atlético Madrid
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 9 scored, 8 conceded
- Wat Real Sociedad de Fútbol3–0
- Lat Liverpool FC1–2
- Lat Athletic Club0–3
- Wat Sevilla FC3–1
- Dvs Villarreal CF2–2
CA Osasuna
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 5 scored, 8 conceded
- Lvs RCD Espanyol de Barcelona0–2
- Lat Deportivo Alavés2–5
- Wvs Getafe CF1–0
- Wat RC Celta de Vigo2–1
- Dvs Levante UD0–0
Team news
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 26 August 2026
Last updated: 16 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
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Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Valencia CF
Home
47%
Draw
26%
Away
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- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 49%BTTS: 52%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
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Real Madrid vs RC Celta de Vigo
Home
80%
Draw
15%
Away
5%
- Predicted score: 2–0Over 2.5: 50%BTTS: 31%
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Primera Division
CA Osasuna vs Málaga CF
Home
50%
Draw
28%
Away
22%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 36%BTTS: 40%
High confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.