Primeira Liga
Vitória SC vs CF Estrela da Amadora
Home
62%
Draw
22%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 54%BTTS: 51%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Primeira Liga · Matchweek 6
CD Nacional vs FC Alverca Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 12 Sept, 15:30 (BST)
- Competition
- Primeira Liga
- Round
- Matchweek 6
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
CD Nacional win56%
Draw21%
FC Alverca win22%
- Predicted score
- 2–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 38%
- BTTS yes
- 60%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 83%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 40%
- BTTS no
- 40%
- Expected goals
- 2.01 – 1.18
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
The model rates CD Nacional's home scoring output above the Primeira Liga average. Away defensive numbers work against FC Alverca, who have shipped goals above the Primeira Liga average on the road. Combined attacking and defensive numbers point toward a higher-scoring game than average. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.8%
- 2–08.3%
- 1–08.3%
- 3–16.6%
- 2–25.8%
- 1–25.8%
- 3–05.5%
Team comparison
| Statistic | CD Nacional | FC Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 11 | 9 |
| Points per match | 0.91 | 1.22 |
| Goals per match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.73 | 1.22 |
| Home / away goals scored | 7 | 8 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 10 | 6 |
| Last 5 points | 6 | 7 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 4 | 6 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 8 | 4 |
| Win percentage | 27% | 33% |
CD Nacional recent form
LLWLW
FC Alverca recent form
WWLLD
Recent form
CD Nacional
1W 1D 3L in the last 5 · 6 scored, 8 conceded
- Lat Sporting Clube de Portugal0–2
- Lvs CF Estrela da Amadora2–3
- Lat Vitória SC0–1
- Wvs GD Estoril Praia2–0
- Dat CD Santa Clara2–2
FC Alverca
0W 1D 2L in the last 3 · 3 scored, 6 conceded
- Lvs Sporting Clube de Braga1–2
- Dvs CD Santa Clara1–1
- Lat Sporting Clube de Portugal1–3
Where to watch (UK)
Primeira Liga matches are typically shown in the UK by Premier Sports. Kick-off is Sat 12 Sept, 15:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 23 August 2026
Last updated: 12 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
Primeira Liga
Casa Pia AC vs Sporting Clube de Braga
Home
14%
Draw
24%
Away
62%
- Predicted score: 0–1Over 2.5: 39%BTTS: 38%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.