Championship
Swansea City AFC vs West Bromwich Albion FC
Home
34%
Draw
27%
Away
39%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 45%BTTS: 50%
High confidenceFull prediction
Championship · Matchweek 8
Burnley FC vs Derby County FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Championship
- Round
- Matchweek 8
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Burnley FC win37%
Draw26%
Derby County FC win37%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- BTTS yes
- 54%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 74%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 28%
- BTTS no
- 46%
- Expected goals
- 1.34 – 1.32
Medium confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Burnley FC have scored at a below-average rate at home, which limits the model's home goal expectation. Statistically the two sides are closely matched, so the draw probability stays comparatively high.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
- 0–07.0%
- 2–06.3%
- 0–26.1%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Burnley FC | Derby County FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 15 | 14 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| Goals per match | 1.47 | 0.93 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.07 | 2.00 |
| Home / away goals scored | 8 | 6 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 10 | 13 |
| Last 5 points | 2 | 4 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 7 | 5 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 12 | 11 |
| Win percentage | 7% | 14% |
Burnley FC recent form
LLDDL
Derby County FC recent form
LDLLW
Recent form
Burnley FC
0W 2D 3L in the last 5 · 5 scored, 11 conceded
- Lat Swansea City AFC1–3
- Dat Wrexham AFC1–1
- Lvs Bristol City FC1–2
- Dvs Middlesbrough FC1–1
- Lat Norwich City FC1–4
Derby County FC
1W 0D 4L in the last 5 · 3 scored, 9 conceded
- Lvs Birmingham City FC1–2
- Lvs West Bromwich Albion FC0–1
- Lat West Ham United FC0–3
- Wat Portsmouth FC2–0
- Lvs Swansea City AFC0–3
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 29 August 2026
Last updated: 19 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
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West Ham United FC vs Preston North End FC
Home
76%
Draw
14%
Away
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- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 75%BTTS: 60%
High confidenceFull prediction
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Middlesbrough FC vs Swansea City AFC
Home
68%
Draw
17%
Away
15%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 74%BTTS: 65%
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Championship
Norwich City FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC
Home
63%
Draw
18%
Away
19%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 73%BTTS: 67%
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.