Championship
West Ham United FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC
Home
67%
Draw
18%
Away
14%
- Predicted score: 2–0Over 2.5: 64%BTTS: 57%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Championship · Matchweek 8
Burnley FC vs Derby County FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Championship
- Round
- Matchweek 8
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Burnley FC win37%
Draw26%
Derby County FC win37%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- BTTS yes
- 54%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 74%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 28%
- BTTS no
- 46%
- Expected goals
- 1.34 – 1.32
Medium confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Burnley FC have scored at a below-average rate at home, which limits the model's home goal expectation. Statistically the two sides are closely matched, so the draw probability stays comparatively high.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
- 0–07.0%
- 2–06.3%
- 0–26.1%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Burnley FC | Derby County FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 8 | 7 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 0.71 |
| Goals per match | 1.13 | 0.86 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.13 | 1.71 |
| Home / away goals scored | 5 | 3 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 6 | 4 |
| Last 5 points | 3 | 4 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 5 | 4 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 8 | 7 |
| Win percentage | 0% | 14% |
Burnley FC recent form
DLDLD
Derby County FC recent form
WLLLD
Recent form
Burnley FC
0W 2D 3L in the last 5 · 5 scored, 11 conceded
- Lat Swansea City AFC1–3
- Dat Wrexham AFC1–1
- Lvs Bristol City FC1–2
- Dvs Middlesbrough FC1–1
- Lat Norwich City FC1–4
Derby County FC
1W 0D 4L in the last 5 · 3 scored, 9 conceded
- Lvs Birmingham City FC1–2
- Lvs West Bromwich Albion FC0–1
- Lat West Ham United FC0–3
- Wat Portsmouth FC2–0
- Lvs Swansea City AFC0–3
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 29 August 2026
Last updated: 19 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 510
- 1X2 accuracy
- 46.9%
- BTTS accuracy
- 57.5%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.8%
- Exact score
- 10.6%
Related predictions
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Swansea City AFC vs Norwich City FC
Home
60%
Draw
21%
Away
18%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 58%BTTS: 55%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Championship
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs Bolton Wanderers FC
Home
74%
Draw
14%
Away
12%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 76%BTTS: 63%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Championship
Birmingham City FC vs Preston North End FC
Home
52%
Draw
23%
Away
25%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 60%BTTS: 60%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.