Eredivisie
FC Groningen vs SC Heerenveen
Home
24%
Draw
17%
Away
58%
- Predicted score: 1–2Over 2.5: 85%BTTS: 80%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Eredivisie · Matchweek 6
AZ vs Willem II Tilburg Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Fri 11 Sept, 19:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Eredivisie
- Round
- Matchweek 6
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
AZ win73%
Draw13%
Willem II Tilburg win14%
- Predicted score
- 3–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 91%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 9%
- BTTS yes
- 80%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 97%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 79%
- BTTS no
- 20%
- Expected goals
- 3.70 – 1.72
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
AZ have produced a stronger-than-average attacking record at home in this competition. AZ's home defensive record is tighter than the competition average, which suppresses the away goal expectation. Combined attacking and defensive numbers point toward a higher-scoring game than average. Recent results also favour AZ, whose points-per-match rate over the last five games is above average.
Most likely scorelines
- 3–16.5%
- 4–16.0%
- 3–25.6%
- 2–15.3%
- 4–25.2%
- 2–24.6%
- 5–14.5%
- 5–23.8%
Team comparison
| Statistic | AZ | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 1.70 | 0.30 |
| Goals per match | 1.80 | 0.90 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 3.20 |
| Home / away goals scored | 11 | 5 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 8 | 19 |
| Last 5 points | 4 | 1 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 6 | 5 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 10 | 20 |
| Win percentage | 50% | 0% |
AZ recent form
LDLLW
Willem II Tilburg recent form
LLLLD
Recent form
AZ
3W 2D 0L in the last 5 · 14 scored, 8 conceded
- Wat SC Heerenveen3–2
- Wvs Go Ahead Eagles5–2
- Wat Fortuna Sittard2–0
- Dvs NAC Breda3–3
- Dat Feyenoord Rotterdam1–1
Willem II Tilburg
0W 1D 1L in the last 2 · 2 scored, 5 conceded
- Lvs SBV Excelsior0–3
- Dvs SC Heerenveen2–2
Where to watch (UK)
Eredivisie matches are typically shown in the UK by Premier Sports. Kick-off is Fri 11 Sept, 19:00 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 23 August 2026
Last updated: 11 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
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FC Twente '65 vs Willem II Tilburg
Home
91%
Draw
6%
Away
3%
- Predicted score: 4–0Over 2.5: 86%BTTS: 54%
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41%
Draw
21%
Away
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Draw
20%
Away
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- Predicted score: 1–2Over 2.5: 62%BTTS: 58%
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.