Eredivisie
FC Groningen vs SC Heerenveen
Home
24%
Draw
17%
Away
58%
- Predicted score: 1–2Over 2.5: 85%BTTS: 80%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Eredivisie · Matchweek 7
AFC Ajax vs SBV Excelsior Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 19 Sept, 19:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Eredivisie
- Round
- Matchweek 7
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
AFC Ajax win46%
Draw20%
SBV Excelsior win34%
- Predicted score
- 2–2
- Over 2.5 goals
- 81%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 19%
- BTTS yes
- 79%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 93%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 64%
- BTTS no
- 21%
- Expected goals
- 2.35 – 2.03
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Home scoring numbers favour AFC Ajax, who have created goals at an above-average rate in front of their own crowd. The model credits SBV Excelsior with an above-average away defensive record. The model expects fewer away goals given AFC Ajax's home defensive numbers. The model expects a relatively open scoring environment in this match.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–27.1%
- 2–17.0%
- 1–26.1%
- 1–16.0%
- 3–25.6%
- 3–15.5%
- 2–34.8%
- 1–34.1%
Team comparison
| Statistic | AFC Ajax | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 11 | 10 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals per match | 2.73 | 1.10 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.36 | 2.70 |
| Home / away goals scored | 12 | 7 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 9 | 9 |
| Last 5 points | 11 | 0 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 11 | 1 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 6 | 20 |
| Win percentage | 55% | 20% |
AFC Ajax recent form
DWWWD
SBV Excelsior recent form
LLLLL
Recent form
AFC Ajax
3W 1D 1L in the last 5 · 17 scored, 7 conceded
- Wvs Willem II Tilburg5–1
- Wat Fortuna Sittard5–1
- Lvs PSV1–3
- Wat Telstar 19634–0
- Dvs SC Heerenveen2–2
SBV Excelsior
3W 1D 1L in the last 5 · 11 scored, 7 conceded
- Lvs FC Utrecht1–2
- Dat NEC2–2
- Wat Willem II Tilburg3–0
- Wvs Sparta Rotterdam2–1
- Wat Sparta Rotterdam3–2
Where to watch (UK)
Eredivisie matches are typically shown in the UK by Premier Sports. Kick-off is Sat 19 Sept, 19:00 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 29 August 2026
Last updated: 19 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
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FC Twente '65 vs Willem II Tilburg
Home
91%
Draw
6%
Away
3%
- Predicted score: 4–0Over 2.5: 86%BTTS: 54%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
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Go Ahead Eagles vs Fortuna Sittard
Home
41%
Draw
21%
Away
38%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 73%BTTS: 72%
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SBV Excelsior vs Telstar 1963
Home
18%
Draw
20%
Away
62%
- Predicted score: 1–2Over 2.5: 62%BTTS: 58%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.