Serie A
Genoa CFC vs ACF Fiorentina
Home
30%
Draw
23%
Away
47%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 64%BTTS: 64%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Serie A · Matchweek 5
ACF Fiorentina vs SSC Napoli Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sun 20 Sept, 11:30 (BST)
- Competition
- Serie A
- Round
- Matchweek 5
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
ACF Fiorentina win18%
Draw20%
SSC Napoli win62%
- Predicted score
- 1–2
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 35%
- BTTS yes
- 60%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 85%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 43%
- BTTS no
- 40%
- Expected goals
- 1.12 – 2.23
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
The model sees ACF Fiorentina's home attacking output as weaker than the Serie A baseline. The model expects a relatively open scoring environment in this match. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–29.8%
- 1–18.8%
- 0–28.7%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–37.3%
- 0–36.5%
- 2–25.5%
- 2–14.9%
Team comparison
| Statistic | ACF Fiorentina | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 5 | 5 |
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals per match | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Home / away goals scored | 2 | 5 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 6 | 4 |
| Last 5 points | 4 | 7 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 6 | 7 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 12 | 6 |
| Win percentage | 20% | 40% |
ACF Fiorentina recent form
LLLWD
SSC Napoli recent form
WLLWD
Recent form
ACF Fiorentina
1W 1D 3L in the last 5 · 6 scored, 12 conceded
- Wat Venezia FC4–2
- Lvs Torino FC1–2
- Lvs Frosinone Calcio0–3
- Lat AS Roma0–4
- Dvs Atalanta BC1–1
SSC Napoli
2W 0D 3L in the last 5 · 6 scored, 6 conceded
- Wvs Bologna FC 19091–0
- Lvs Arsenal FC0–1
- Lat Inter Milan2–3
- Lvs Como 19071–2
- Wat Genoa CFC2–0
Team news
SSC Napoli
- Napoli and Roma return to training, Inter, Milan, Como enjoy break: Serie A clubs' international schedule
- Scott McTominay transfer 'could become a reality' in major twist for ex-Man United star
- Scott McTominay's recovery timeline revealed ahead of ex-Man United star's heart surgery
- Football transfer rumours: Folarin Balogun to Tottenham? Gabriel Jesus to Napoli?
Where to watch (UK)
Serie A matches are typically shown in the UK by TNT Sports. Kick-off is Sun 20 Sept, 11:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 30 August 2026
Last updated: 20 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 510
- 1X2 accuracy
- 46.9%
- BTTS accuracy
- 57.5%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.8%
- Exact score
- 10.6%
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US Lecce vs Bologna FC 1909
Home
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Draw
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Away
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- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 43%BTTS: 49%
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Draw
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Away
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Home
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Draw
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Away
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.