Serie A · Matchweek 5

AC Milan vs US Lecce Prediction

Sun 20 Sept, 19:45

Match essentials

Kick-off (UK): Sun 20 Sept, 19:45 (BST)
Kick-off (local): Sun 20 Sept, 20:45 (CEST)
Competition: Serie A
Round: Matchweek 5
Venue: Milan, Italy

United Matchday prediction

AC Milan win57%

Draw24%

US Lecce win19%

Predicted score: 1–0
Over 2.5 goals: 48%
Under 2.5 goals: 52%
BTTS yes: 48%

Over 1.5 goals: 73%
Over 3.5 goals: 27%
BTTS no: 52%
Expected goals: 1.72 – 0.89

Low confidence

Why the model favours this outcome

AC Milan have produced a stronger-than-average attacking record at home in this competition. The model credits US Lecce with an above-average away defensive record. The model expects fewer away goals given AC Milan's home defensive numbers. Recent results also favour AC Milan, whose points-per-match rate over the last five games is above average.

Most likely scorelines

1–012.7%
1–111.2%
2–010.9%
2–19.7%
0–07.4%
0–16.5%
3–06.3%
3–15.6%

Team comparison

Statistic	AC Milan	US Lecce
Matches played	5	5
Points per match	2.20	1.20
Goals per match	2.00	1.00
Goals conceded per match	0.80	2.00
Home / away goals scored	5	2
Home / away goals conceded	0	4
Last 5 points	11	6
Last 5 goals scored	10	5
Last 5 goals conceded	4	10
Win percentage	60%	40%

AC Milan recent form

WWDDW

US Lecce recent form

WLLWL

Recent form

AC Milan

2W 2D 1L in the last 5 · 8 scored, 6 conceded

Dat SS Lazio2–2
Dat Juventus1–1
Wvs Venezia FC2–0
Wat Torino FC2–1
Lvs Cagliari Calcio1–2

US Lecce

3W 0D 2L in the last 5 · 6 scored, 7 conceded

Wvs AC Monza3–2
Lat Cagliari Calcio0–1
Lvs AS Roma0–4
Wat Venezia FC2–0
Wvs Genoa CFC1–0

Where to watch (UK)

Serie A matches are typically shown in the UK by TNT Sports. Kick-off is Sun 20 Sept, 19:45 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.