Serie A
Parma Calcio 1913 vs AS Roma
Home
8%
Draw
14%
Away
78%
- Predicted score: 0–2Over 2.5: 68%BTTS: 51%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Serie A · Matchweek 5
AC Milan vs US Lecce Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sun 20 Sept, 19:45 (BST)
- Kick-off (local)
- Sun 20 Sept, 20:45 (CEST)
- Competition
- Serie A
- Round
- Matchweek 5
- Venue
- Milan, Italy
United Matchday prediction
AC Milan win57%
Draw24%
US Lecce win19%
- Predicted score
- 1–0
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- BTTS yes
- 48%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 73%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 27%
- BTTS no
- 52%
- Expected goals
- 1.72 – 0.89
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
AC Milan have produced a stronger-than-average attacking record at home in this competition. The model credits US Lecce with an above-average away defensive record. The model expects fewer away goals given AC Milan's home defensive numbers. Recent results also favour AC Milan, whose points-per-match rate over the last five games is above average.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.7%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.4%
- 0–16.5%
- 3–06.3%
- 3–15.6%
Team comparison
| Statistic | AC Milan | US Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 11 | 11 |
| Points per match | 2.18 | 0.91 |
| Goals per match | 2.09 | 1.09 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.18 | 2.00 |
| Home / away goals scored | 13 | 7 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 7 | 10 |
| Last 5 points | 12 | 4 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 12 | 6 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 8 | 10 |
| Win percentage | 64% | 27% |
AC Milan recent form
WWLWW
US Lecce recent form
WLLLD
Recent form
AC Milan
2W 2D 1L in the last 5 · 8 scored, 6 conceded
- Dat SS Lazio2–2
- Dat Juventus1–1
- Wvs Venezia FC2–0
- Wat Torino FC2–1
- Lvs Cagliari Calcio1–2
US Lecce
3W 0D 2L in the last 5 · 6 scored, 7 conceded
- Wvs AC Monza3–2
- Lat Cagliari Calcio0–1
- Lvs AS Roma0–4
- Wat Venezia FC2–0
- Wvs Genoa CFC1–0
Where to watch (UK)
Serie A matches are typically shown in the UK by TNT Sports. Kick-off is Sun 20 Sept, 19:45 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 30 August 2026
Last updated: 20 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
Serie A
Venezia FC vs Bologna FC 1909
Home
15%
Draw
20%
Away
64%
- Predicted score: 0–2Over 2.5: 56%BTTS: 51%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Serie A
US Sassuolo Calcio vs SSC Napoli
Home
20%
Draw
18%
Away
62%
- Predicted score: 1–2Over 2.5: 74%BTTS: 69%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Serie A
Cagliari Calcio vs AC Milan
Home
16%
Draw
23%
Away
60%
- Predicted score: 0–1Over 2.5: 47%BTTS: 45%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.