Premier League
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest FC
Home
62%
Draw
21%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 52%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 5
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs Aston Villa FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 19 Sept, 12:30 (BST)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 5
- Venue
- Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England
United Matchday prediction
Tottenham Hotspur FC win38%
Draw34%
Aston Villa FC win27%
- Predicted score
- 0–0
- Over 2.5 goals
- 24%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 76%
- BTTS yes
- 32%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 50%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 9%
- BTTS no
- 68%
- Expected goals
- 0.94 – 0.74
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Tottenham Hotspur FC have scored at a below-average rate at home, which limits the model's home goal expectation. The model expects a lower-scoring game than the competition average. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–018.7%
- 1–017.5%
- 0–113.8%
- 1–113.0%
- 2–08.2%
- 2–16.1%
- 0–25.1%
- 1–24.8%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Tottenham Hotspur FC | Aston Villa FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| Goals per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.10 | 1.70 |
| Home / away goals scored | 7 | 8 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 6 | 10 |
| Last 5 points | 10 | 9 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 8 | 10 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 3 | 8 |
| Win percentage | 30% | 30% |
Tottenham Hotspur FC recent form
DWWWL
Aston Villa FC recent form
DWWDD
Recent form
Tottenham Hotspur FC
1W 2D 2L in the last 5 · 1 scored, 5 conceded
- Dvs Everton FC0–0
- Dat Nottingham Forest FC0–0
- Lvs Newcastle United FC0–2
- Lat Brentford FC0–3
- Wvs Everton FC1–0
Aston Villa FC
1W 1D 3L in the last 5 · 4 scored, 9 conceded
- Lvs Nottingham Forest FC1–2
- Wat Club Brugge KV3–2
- Dat Hull City AFC0–0
- Lvs Arsenal FC0–1
- Lat Brighton & Hove Albion FC0–4
Team news
Tottenham Hotspur FC
- Xavi Simons reveals emotional toll of Spurs ACL injury as return nears
- Transfer Talk: Should Spurs have signed another striker this season?
- Football gossip: Tottenham Hotspur eye £125m move for Morgan Gibbs-White
- League One: Tottenham loan signing Irow scores SCREAMER for Plymouth straight from kick-off!
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sat 19 Sept, 12:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 29 August 2026
Last updated: 19 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
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Hull City AFC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Home
20%
Draw
22%
Away
58%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 57%BTTS: 55%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League
Brentford FC vs Everton FC
Home
51%
Draw
27%
Away
22%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 40%BTTS: 43%
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Premier League
Coventry City FC vs Ipswich Town FC
Home
40%
Draw
21%
Away
39%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 75%BTTS: 74%
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.