Premier League
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest FC
Home
62%
Draw
21%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 52%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 4
Sunderland AFC vs Arsenal FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 12 Sept, 20:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 4
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Sunderland AFC win28%
Draw28%
Arsenal FC win44%
- Predicted score
- 0–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 61%
- BTTS yes
- 44%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 65%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 19%
- BTTS no
- 56%
- Expected goals
- 0.95 – 1.28
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Sunderland AFC have scored at a below-average rate at home, which limits the model's home goal expectation. Arsenal FC have defended well on the road, conceding less often than the average travelling side. Sunderland AFC's home defensive record is tighter than the competition average, which suppresses the away goal expectation. Arsenal FC arrive in stronger recent form, which the model weights alongside season-long numbers.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–010.7%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–16.2%
- 2–04.9%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Sunderland AFC | Arsenal FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.70 |
| Goals per match | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.70 | 0.50 |
| Home / away goals scored | 2 | 5 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 4 | 3 |
| Last 5 points | 4 | 15 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 2 | 7 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 7 | 1 |
| Win percentage | 20% | 90% |
Sunderland AFC recent form
LLDLW
Arsenal FC recent form
WWWWW
Recent form
Sunderland AFC
3W 1D 1L in the last 5 · 8 scored, 5 conceded
- Dat Brentford FC1–1
- Wvs Fulham FC1–0
- Lat Ipswich Town FC1–2
- Wvs Chelsea FC2–1
- Wat Everton FC3–1
Arsenal FC
4W 0D 1L in the last 5 · 11 scored, 6 conceded
- Wat SSC Napoli1–0
- Wvs Chelsea FC2–1
- Wat Aston Villa FC1–0
- Wvs Coventry City FC3–0
- Lat Paris Saint-Germain4–5
Team news
Arsenal FC
- England squad announcement: Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta on Ben White recall, Gunners in the England squad and No
- Slavia Prague 1-2 Arsenal: Noni Madueke and Viktor Gyokeres on target as Gunners survive second-half scare
- Papers: Arteta using NASA to help fix Arsenal's injury woes
- Liverpool's unwanted record highlights creativity issue
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sat 12 Sept, 20:00 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 23 August 2026
Last updated: 12 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
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Hull City AFC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Home
20%
Draw
22%
Away
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- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 57%BTTS: 55%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
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Home
51%
Draw
27%
Away
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Coventry City FC vs Ipswich Town FC
Home
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Draw
21%
Away
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.