Premier League
Manchester United FC vs Tottenham Hotspur FC
Home
69%
Draw
20%
Away
12%
- Predicted score: 2–0Over 2.5: 52%BTTS: 44%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 4
Sunderland AFC vs Arsenal FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 12 Sept, 20:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 4
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Sunderland AFC win28%
Draw28%
Arsenal FC win44%
- Predicted score
- 0–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 61%
- BTTS yes
- 44%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 65%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 19%
- BTTS no
- 56%
- Expected goals
- 0.95 – 1.28
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Sunderland AFC have scored at a below-average rate at home, which limits the model's home goal expectation. Arsenal FC have defended well on the road, conceding less often than the average travelling side. Sunderland AFC's home defensive record is tighter than the competition average, which suppresses the away goal expectation. Arsenal FC arrive in stronger recent form, which the model weights alongside season-long numbers.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–010.7%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–16.2%
- 2–04.9%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Sunderland AFC | Arsenal FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 5 | 5 |
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| Goals per match | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Home / away goals scored | 1 | 3 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 2 | 3 |
| Last 5 points | 4 | 12 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 6 | 8 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 10 | 4 |
| Win percentage | 20% | 80% |
Sunderland AFC recent form
LWDLL
Arsenal FC recent form
WWWWL
Recent form
Sunderland AFC
3W 1D 1L in the last 5 · 8 scored, 5 conceded
- Dat Brentford FC1–1
- Wvs Fulham FC1–0
- Lat Ipswich Town FC1–2
- Wvs Chelsea FC2–1
- Wat Everton FC3–1
Arsenal FC
4W 0D 1L in the last 5 · 11 scored, 6 conceded
- Wat SSC Napoli1–0
- Wvs Chelsea FC2–1
- Wat Aston Villa FC1–0
- Wvs Coventry City FC3–0
- Lat Paris Saint-Germain4–5
Team news
Arsenal FC
- Kai Havertz returning to Arsenal to be assessed after suffering injury for Germany against Netherlands
- Transfer rumors, news: Arsenal want Yildiz as Al Hilal add Martinelli to short list
- Arsenal starlet Max Dowman to link up with England senior squad after mass withdrawals - Paper Talk
- Mykhailo Mudryk preferred Arsenal move before £88m Chelsea transfer - Paper Talk
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sat 12 Sept, 20:00 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 23 August 2026
Last updated: 12 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 510
- 1X2 accuracy
- 46.9%
- BTTS accuracy
- 57.5%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.8%
- Exact score
- 10.6%
Related predictions
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Coventry City FC vs Newcastle United FC
Home
16%
Draw
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Away
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- Predicted score: 0–2Over 2.5: 60%BTTS: 55%
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Leeds United FC vs Manchester United FC
Home
53%
Draw
24%
Away
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- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 50%BTTS: 51%
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Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Crystal Palace FC
Home
75%
Draw
15%
Away
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- Predicted score: 2–0Over 2.5: 67%BTTS: 52%
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.