Eredivisie · Matchweek 5

SC Heerenveen vs AZ Prediction

Match essentials

Kick-off (UK)
Sun 6 Sept, 13:30 (BST)
Competition
Eredivisie
Round
Matchweek 5
Venue
To be confirmed

United Matchday prediction

SC Heerenveen win13%
Draw15%
AZ win72%
Predicted score
1–2
Over 2.5 goals
74%
Under 2.5 goals
26%
BTTS yes
63%
Over 1.5 goals
90%
Over 3.5 goals
54%
BTTS no
37%
Expected goals
1.12 – 2.76

Low confidence

Why the model favours this outcome

The model sees SC Heerenveen's home attacking output as weaker than the Eredivisie baseline. The model credits AZ with an above-average away defensive record. The model expects a relatively open scoring environment in this match. AZ arrive in stronger recent form, which the model weights alongside season-long numbers.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–28.8%
  • 1–38.1%
  • 0–27.9%
  • 0–37.3%
  • 1–16.4%
  • 0–15.7%
  • 1–45.6%
  • 0–45.0%

Team comparison

StatisticSC HeerenveenAZ
Matches played65
Points per match1.002.60
Goals per match1.672.40
Goals conceded per match1.501.00
Home / away goals scored25
Home / away goals conceded52
Last 5 points513
Last 5 goals scored812
Last 5 goals conceded75
Win percentage17%80%

SC Heerenveen recent form

LDLDW

AZ recent form

WWWDW

Recent form

SC Heerenveen

0W 3D 2L in the last 5 · 4 scored, 8 conceded

  • Dat Willem II Tilburg2–2
  • Lvs PEC Zwolle0–2
  • Dat AFC Ajax2–2
  • Dvs AFC Ajax0–0
  • Lat NAC Breda0–2

AZ

2W 3D 0L in the last 5 · 13 scored, 8 conceded

  • Wvs Go Ahead Eagles5–2
  • Wat Fortuna Sittard2–0
  • Dvs NAC Breda3–3
  • Dat Feyenoord Rotterdam1–1
  • Dvs FC Twente '652–2

Where to watch (UK)

Eredivisie matches are typically shown in the UK by Premier Sports. Kick-off is Sun 6 Sept, 13:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.

Model transparency

Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 23 August 2026
Last updated: 6 September 2026
Status: Locked

How predictions work

Prediction record

Matches predicted
510
1X2 accuracy
46.9%
BTTS accuracy
57.5%
Over 2.5 accuracy
58.8%
Exact score
10.6%

Related predictions

Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.