Premier League
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest FC
Home
62%
Draw
21%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 52%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 5
Newcastle United FC vs Hull City AFC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 5
- Venue
- St James' Park, Newcastle, England
United Matchday prediction
Newcastle United FC win31%
Draw23%
Hull City AFC win46%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 39%
- BTTS yes
- 63%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 83%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 39%
- BTTS no
- 37%
- Expected goals
- 1.40 – 1.77
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Hull City AFC have defended well on the road, conceding less often than the average travelling side. Combined attacking and defensive numbers point toward a higher-scoring game than average. Hull City AFC arrive in stronger recent form, which the model weights alongside season-long numbers. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–17.4%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–26.6%
- 2–26.5%
- 1–05.9%
- 1–35.4%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Newcastle United FC | Hull City AFC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| Goals per match | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.60 | 1.10 |
| Home / away goals scored | 6 | 4 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 7 | 6 |
| Last 5 points | 4 | 3 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 4 | 5 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 7 | 7 |
| Win percentage | 30% | 20% |
Newcastle United FC recent form
LLWLD
Hull City AFC recent form
DLDDL
Recent form
Newcastle United FC
1W 2D 2L in the last 5 · 7 scored, 10 conceded
- Lat Leeds United FC1–4
- Dvs AFC Bournemouth2–2
- Wat Tottenham Hotspur FC2–0
- Dvs Liverpool FC2–2
- Lat Fulham FC0–2
Hull City AFC
3W 2D 0L in the last 5 · 6 scored, 2 conceded
- Dat Chelsea FC2–2
- Dvs Aston Villa FC0–0
- Wat Coventry City FC1–0
- Wvs Manchester United FC2–0
- Wvs Middlesbrough FC1–0
Team news
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 29 August 2026
Last updated: 19 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
Premier League
Hull City AFC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Home
20%
Draw
22%
Away
58%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 57%BTTS: 55%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League
Brentford FC vs Everton FC
Home
51%
Draw
27%
Away
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- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 40%BTTS: 43%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League
Coventry City FC vs Ipswich Town FC
Home
40%
Draw
21%
Away
39%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 75%BTTS: 74%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.