Premier League
Manchester United FC vs Tottenham Hotspur FC
Home
69%
Draw
20%
Away
12%
- Predicted score: 2–0Over 2.5: 52%BTTS: 44%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 7
Newcastle United FC vs Aston Villa FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 (BST)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 7
- Venue
- St James' Park, Newcastle, England
United Matchday prediction
Newcastle United FC win55%
Draw21%
Aston Villa FC win24%
- Predicted score
- 2–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 36%
- BTTS yes
- 62%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 84%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 42%
- BTTS no
- 38%
- Expected goals
- 2.03 – 1.26
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Home scoring numbers favour Newcastle United FC, who have created goals at an above-average rate in front of their own crowd. Away defensive numbers work against Aston Villa FC, who have shipped goals above the Premier League average on the road. Combined attacking and defensive numbers point toward a higher-scoring game than average. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–07.6%
- 3–16.5%
- 2–26.1%
- 1–26.0%
- 3–05.2%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Newcastle United FC | Aston Villa FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 5 | 5 |
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals per match | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Home / away goals scored | 6 | 3 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 5 | 6 |
| Last 5 points | 8 | 4 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 9 | 4 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 9 | 9 |
| Win percentage | 40% | 20% |
Newcastle United FC recent form
DWDLW
Aston Villa FC recent form
LLDLW
Recent form
Newcastle United FC
2W 2D 1L in the last 5 · 9 scored, 9 conceded
- Wvs Hull City AFC2–1
- Lat Leeds United FC1–4
- Dvs AFC Bournemouth2–2
- Wat Tottenham Hotspur FC2–0
- Dvs Liverpool FC2–2
Aston Villa FC
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 7 scored, 7 conceded
- Wat Tottenham Hotspur FC3–2
- Lvs Nottingham Forest FC1–2
- Wat Club Brugge KV3–2
- Dat Hull City AFC0–0
- Lvs Arsenal FC0–1
Team news
Newcastle United FC
- Aston Villa sign Mbaye and Harwood-Bellis as Newcastle get Fernandez-Pardo
- Matias Fernandez-Pardo transfer news: Newcastle closing in on deal to sign Lille forward ahead of transfer dea
- Newcastle have a long-standing interest in Fernandez-Pardo
- Francisco Moreno: Pumas prop joins Newcastle Red Bulls on one-year deal
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 26 September 2026
Last updated: 29 September 2026
Status: Live
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 510
- 1X2 accuracy
- 46.9%
- BTTS accuracy
- 57.5%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.8%
- Exact score
- 10.6%
Related predictions
Premier League
Coventry City FC vs Newcastle United FC
Home
16%
Draw
20%
Away
64%
- Predicted score: 0–2Over 2.5: 60%BTTS: 55%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Premier League
Leeds United FC vs Manchester United FC
Home
53%
Draw
24%
Away
22%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 50%BTTS: 51%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Premier League
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Crystal Palace FC
Home
75%
Draw
15%
Away
10%
- Predicted score: 2–0Over 2.5: 67%BTTS: 52%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.