Premier League
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest FC
Home
62%
Draw
21%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 52%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 11
Newcastle United FC vs Arsenal FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 21 Nov, 17:30 (GMT)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 11
- Venue
- St James' Park, Newcastle, England
United Matchday prediction
Newcastle United FC win15%
Draw24%
Arsenal FC win61%
- Predicted score
- 0–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 57%
- BTTS yes
- 41%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 69%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 22%
- BTTS no
- 59%
- Expected goals
- 0.71 – 1.69
Medium confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Newcastle United FC have scored at a below-average rate at home, which limits the model's home goal expectation. Arsenal FC have defended well on the road, conceding less often than the average travelling side. Arsenal FC arrive in stronger recent form, which the model weights alongside season-long numbers.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–115.3%
- 0–213.0%
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–09.0%
- 0–37.3%
- 1–06.4%
- 1–35.2%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Newcastle United FC | Arsenal FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.70 |
| Goals per match | 1.30 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.60 | 0.50 |
| Home / away goals scored | 6 | 5 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 7 | 3 |
| Last 5 points | 4 | 15 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 4 | 7 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 7 | 1 |
| Win percentage | 30% | 90% |
Newcastle United FC recent form
LLWLD
Arsenal FC recent form
WWWWW
Recent form
Newcastle United FC
1W 1D 3L in the last 5 · 4 scored, 7 conceded
- Dat Fulham FC1–1
- Lvs Everton FC0–1
- Wat Crystal Palace FC2–0
- Lvs Aston Villa FC0–1
- Lat Coventry City FC1–4
Arsenal FC
4W 1D 0L in the last 5 · 8 scored, 3 conceded
- Wvs Hull City AFC1–0
- Wat SK Slavia Praha2–1
- Wat Liverpool FC1–0
- Wvs Everton FC2–0
- Dat Bayern Munich2–2
Team news
Newcastle United FC
Arsenal FC
- England squad announcement: Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta on Ben White recall, Gunners in the England squad and No
- Slavia Prague 1-2 Arsenal: Noni Madueke and Viktor Gyokeres on target as Gunners survive second-half scare
- Papers: Arteta using NASA to help fix Arsenal's injury woes
- Liverpool's unwanted record highlights creativity issue
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sat 21 Nov, 17:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 31 October 2026
Last updated: 13 November 2026
Status: Live
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
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Hull City AFC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Home
20%
Draw
22%
Away
58%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 57%BTTS: 55%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
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Home
51%
Draw
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Away
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- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 40%BTTS: 43%
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Coventry City FC vs Ipswich Town FC
Home
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Draw
21%
Away
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- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 75%BTTS: 74%
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.