Premier League · Matchweek 4

Manchester United FC vs Manchester City FC Prediction

Match essentials

Kick-off (UK)
Sun 13 Sept, 16:30 (BST)
Competition
Premier League
Round
Matchweek 4
Venue
Old Trafford, Manchester, England

United Matchday prediction

Manchester United FC win30%
Draw18%
Manchester City FC win52%
Predicted score
2–2
Over 2.5 goals
86%
Under 2.5 goals
14%
BTTS yes
82%
Over 1.5 goals
95%
Over 3.5 goals
71%
BTTS no
18%
Expected goals
2.10 – 2.71

Low confidence

Why the model favours this outcome

Manchester United FC have produced a stronger-than-average attacking record at home in this competition. Manchester City FC have defended well on the road, conceding less often than the average travelling side. Manchester City FC's travelling attack has outperformed the competition average. Combined attacking and defensive numbers point toward a higher-scoring game than average.

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–26.6%
  • 1–26.3%
  • 2–36.0%
  • 1–35.7%
  • 2–14.9%
  • 1–14.6%
  • 3–24.6%
  • 3–34.2%

Team comparison

StatisticManchester United FCManchester City FC
Matches played55
Points per match1.003.00
Goals per match1.602.60
Goals conceded per match1.601.00
Home / away goals scored55
Home / away goals conceded31
Last 5 points515
Last 5 goals scored813
Last 5 goals conceded85
Win percentage20%100%

Manchester United FC recent form

LWDLD

Manchester City FC recent form

WWWWW

Recent form

Manchester United FC

3W 1D 1L in the last 5 · 14 scored, 6 conceded

  • Wvs Sabah FK4–0
  • Dat Everton FC2–2
  • Wvs Ipswich Town FC5–2
  • Lat Hull City AFC0–2
  • Wat Brighton & Hove Albion FC3–0

Manchester City FC

4W 0D 1L in the last 5 · 10 scored, 4 conceded

  • Wat FC Porto2–0
  • Wvs Coventry City FC1–0
  • Wat Crystal Palace FC4–1
  • Wvs AFC Bournemouth2–1
  • Lvs Aston Villa FC1–2

Team news

Where to watch (UK)

Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sun 13 Sept, 16:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.

Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.

Model transparency

Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 23 August 2026
Last updated: 13 September 2026
Status: Locked

How predictions work

Prediction record

Matches predicted
510
1X2 accuracy
46.9%
BTTS accuracy
57.5%
Over 2.5 accuracy
58.8%
Exact score
10.6%

Related predictions

Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.