Premier League
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest FC
Home
62%
Draw
21%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 52%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 5
Manchester City FC vs Sunderland AFC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 5
- Venue
- Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England
United Matchday prediction
Manchester City FC win67%
Draw20%
Sunderland AFC win13%
- Predicted score
- 2–0
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- BTTS yes
- 47%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 77%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 31%
- BTTS no
- 53%
- Expected goals
- 2.04 – 0.78
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
The model expects fewer away goals given Manchester City FC's home defensive numbers. Recent results also favour Manchester City FC, whose points-per-match rate over the last five games is above average. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–012.4%
- 1–012.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.5%
- 3–08.5%
- 3–16.6%
- 0–06.0%
- 0–14.7%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Manchester City FC | Sunderland AFC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 2.10 | 0.80 |
| Goals per match | 2.10 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.30 | 1.70 |
| Home / away goals scored | 11 | 6 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 7 | 13 |
| Last 5 points | 6 | 4 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 8 | 2 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 8 | 7 |
| Win percentage | 70% | 20% |
Manchester City FC recent form
WWLLL
Sunderland AFC recent form
LLDLW
Recent form
Manchester City FC
5W 0D 0L in the last 5 · 10 scored, 2 conceded
- Wat Manchester United FC1–0
- Wat FC Porto2–0
- Wvs Coventry City FC1–0
- Wat Crystal Palace FC4–1
- Wvs AFC Bournemouth2–1
Sunderland AFC
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 5 scored, 6 conceded
- Lvs Arsenal FC0–2
- Dat Brentford FC1–1
- Wvs Fulham FC1–0
- Lat Ipswich Town FC1–2
- Wvs Chelsea FC2–1
Team news
Manchester City FC
- Premier League: 10 talking points from the weekend’s action
- Scott Pollock: Oxford City midfielder on cup exit to Leicester
- Cardiff City vs West Ham: Max Kilman's equaliser makes it 3-3 after incredible comeback from The Hammers
- Enzo Maresca believes his Manchester City squad is now 'complete' following the signing of Enzo Fernandez
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 30 August 2026
Last updated: 20 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
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Hull City AFC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Home
20%
Draw
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Away
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- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 57%BTTS: 55%
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Draw
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Away
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Draw
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.