Premier League
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest FC
Home
62%
Draw
21%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 52%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 6
Liverpool FC vs Manchester City FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sun 11 Oct, 16:30 (BST)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 6
- Venue
- Anfield, Liverpool, England
United Matchday prediction
Liverpool FC win21%
Draw22%
Manchester City FC win57%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- BTTS yes
- 58%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 81%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 37%
- BTTS no
- 42%
- Expected goals
- 1.11 – 1.96
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Liverpool FC have scored at a below-average rate at home, which limits the model's home goal expectation. Manchester City FC have defended well on the road, conceding less often than the average travelling side. Manchester City FC's travelling attack has outperformed the competition average. Combined attacking and defensive numbers point toward a higher-scoring game than average.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.1%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–36.5%
- 0–35.9%
- 2–15.6%
- 2–25.5%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Liverpool FC | Manchester City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.10 |
| Goals per match | 1.40 | 2.10 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| Home / away goals scored | 4 | 10 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 6 | 6 |
| Last 5 points | 9 | 6 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 7 | 8 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 6 | 8 |
| Win percentage | 50% | 70% |
Liverpool FC recent form
LWWLW
Manchester City FC recent form
WWLLL
Recent form
Liverpool FC
3W 2D 0L in the last 5 · 7 scored, 3 conceded
- Wat AFC Bournemouth1–0
- Dvs Fulham FC0–0
- Wvs Atlético Madrid2–1
- Wat Ipswich Town FC2–0
- Dvs Nottingham Forest FC2–2
Manchester City FC
5W 0D 0L in the last 5 · 13 scored, 4 conceded
- Wvs Sunderland AFC5–3
- Wat Manchester United FC1–0
- Wat FC Porto2–0
- Wvs Coventry City FC1–0
- Wat Crystal Palace FC4–1
Team news
Liverpool FC
Manchester City FC
- Premier League: 10 talking points from the weekend’s action
- Scott Pollock: Oxford City midfielder on cup exit to Leicester
- Cardiff City vs West Ham: Max Kilman's equaliser makes it 3-3 after incredible comeback from The Hammers
- Enzo Maresca believes his Manchester City squad is now 'complete' following the signing of Enzo Fernandez
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 16:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 20 September 2026
Last updated: 11 October 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
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Hull City AFC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Home
20%
Draw
22%
Away
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- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 57%BTTS: 55%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
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Draw
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Away
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Home
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Draw
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Away
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.