Premier League
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest FC
Home
62%
Draw
21%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 52%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 4
Leeds United FC vs Newcastle United FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Mon 14 Sept, 20:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 4
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Leeds United FC win30%
Draw26%
Newcastle United FC win43%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- BTTS yes
- 51%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 72%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 25%
- BTTS no
- 49%
- Expected goals
- 1.13 – 1.41
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Newcastle United FC have defended well on the road, conceding less often than the average travelling side. Newcastle United FC's travelling attack has outperformed the competition average. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–07.9%
- 0–27.8%
- 2–17.1%
- 2–05.0%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Leeds United FC | Newcastle United FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals per match | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Home / away goals scored | 7 | 7 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 3 | 9 |
| Last 5 points | 5 | 4 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 3 | 4 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 5 | 7 |
| Win percentage | 30% | 30% |
Leeds United FC recent form
LDDLW
Newcastle United FC recent form
LLWLD
Recent form
Leeds United FC
2W 2D 1L in the last 5 · 4 scored, 5 conceded
- Dat Brighton & Hove Albion FC1–1
- Dvs Brentford FC1–1
- Wat Nottingham Forest FC1–0
- Lat West Ham United FC0–3
- Wvs Brighton & Hove Albion FC1–0
Newcastle United FC
2W 2D 1L in the last 5 · 9 scored, 7 conceded
- Dvs AFC Bournemouth2–2
- Wat Tottenham Hotspur FC2–0
- Dvs Liverpool FC2–2
- Lat Fulham FC0–2
- Wvs West Ham United FC3–1
Team news
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Mon 14 Sept, 20:00 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 24 August 2026
Last updated: 14 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
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Home
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Draw
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Away
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Draw
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Draw
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.