Primeira Liga
CF Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia AC
Home
53%
Draw
24%
Away
23%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 53%BTTS: 54%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Primeira Liga · Matchweek 9
FC Alverca vs FC Arouca Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 24 Oct, 18:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Primeira Liga
- Round
- Matchweek 9
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
FC Alverca win43%
Draw27%
FC Arouca win29%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- BTTS yes
- 48%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 69%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 22%
- BTTS no
- 52%
- Expected goals
- 1.34 – 1.04
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–19.7%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–18.6%
- 2–08.3%
- 1–26.7%
- 0–25.0%
Team comparison
| Statistic | FC Alverca | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 5 | 6 |
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.33 |
| Goals per match | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.40 | 1.17 |
| Home / away goals scored | 3 | 2 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 3 | 4 |
| Last 5 points | 7 | 5 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 7 | 5 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 7 | 7 |
| Win percentage | 40% | 33% |
FC Alverca recent form
LDLWW
FC Arouca recent form
LWDLD
Recent form
FC Alverca
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 7 scored, 7 conceded
- Wvs Rio Ave FC1–0
- Wat CD Nacional3–1
- Lvs Sporting Clube de Braga1–2
- Dvs CD Santa Clara1–1
- Lat Sporting Clube de Portugal1–3
FC Arouca
1W 2D 2L in the last 5 · 5 scored, 7 conceded
- Dat Sporting Clube de Portugal2–2
- Lvs CD Santa Clara1–2
- Dat GD Estoril Praia0–0
- Wvs CS Marítimo2–1
- Lat FC Porto0–2
Where to watch (UK)
Primeira Liga matches are typically shown in the UK by Premier Sports. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 18:00 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 3 October 2026
Last updated: 3 October 2026
Status: Live
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 511
- 1X2 accuracy
- 47.0%
- BTTS accuracy
- 57.5%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.7%
- Exact score
- 10.6%
Related predictions
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.