Premier League
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest FC
Home
62%
Draw
21%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 52%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 7
Everton FC vs Chelsea FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 17 Oct, 12:30 (BST)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 7
- Venue
- Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, England
United Matchday prediction
Everton FC win56%
Draw21%
Chelsea FC win23%
- Predicted score
- 2–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 37%
- BTTS yes
- 61%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 84%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 41%
- BTTS no
- 39%
- Expected goals
- 2.03 – 1.23
Medium confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Away defensive numbers work against Chelsea FC, who have shipped goals above the Premier League average on the road. Chelsea FC's travelling attack has outperformed the competition average. Combined attacking and defensive numbers point toward a higher-scoring game than average.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–07.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 2–26.0%
- 1–25.9%
- 3–05.4%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Everton FC | Chelsea FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals per match | 1.20 | 1.90 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Home / away goals scored | 8 | 6 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 5 | 8 |
| Last 5 points | 7 | 9 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 6 | 9 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 7 | 4 |
| Win percentage | 40% | 50% |
Everton FC recent form
DLLWW
Chelsea FC recent form
WWLWL
Recent form
Everton FC
1W 4D 0L in the last 5 · 6 scored, 5 conceded
- Dat Hull City AFC2–2
- Wvs Ipswich Town FC1–0
- Dat Tottenham Hotspur FC0–0
- Dvs Manchester United FC2–2
- Dat AFC Bournemouth1–1
Chelsea FC
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 12 scored, 11 conceded
- Wvs AFC Bournemouth5–1
- Lat Brentford FC0–3
- Dvs Hull City AFC2–2
- Lat Arsenal FC1–2
- Wvs Brighton & Hove Albion FC4–3
Team news
Everton FC
- Everton 3-1 Coventry: Thierno Barry gets two goals and an assist in comeback win as Coventry see three VAR inc
- Barry leads Everton comeback win vs Coventry - who suffer triple VAR woe
- Everton: David Moyes tight-lipped over Jack Grealish’s absence from Everton squad
- Everton forced to move EFL Cup tie at short notice
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 12:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 26 September 2026
Last updated: 17 October 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
Premier League
Hull City AFC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Home
20%
Draw
22%
Away
58%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 57%BTTS: 55%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League
Brentford FC vs Everton FC
Home
51%
Draw
27%
Away
22%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 40%BTTS: 43%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League
Coventry City FC vs Ipswich Town FC
Home
40%
Draw
21%
Away
39%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 75%BTTS: 74%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.