Championship
West Ham United FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC
Home
67%
Draw
18%
Away
14%
- Predicted score: 2–0Over 2.5: 64%BTTS: 57%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Championship · Matchweek 3
Derby County FC vs Swansea City AFC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 29 Aug, 12:30 (BST)
- Competition
- Championship
- Round
- Matchweek 3
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Derby County FC win43%
Draw26%
Swansea City AFC win31%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- BTTS yes
- 54%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 74%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 28%
- BTTS no
- 46%
- Expected goals
- 1.45 – 1.21
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Swansea City AFC have defended well on the road, conceding less often than the average travelling side. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–07.4%
- 0–07.0%
- 2–25.4%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Derby County FC | Swansea City AFC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 7 | 7 |
| Points per match | 0.71 | 2.00 |
| Goals per match | 0.86 | 1.57 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.71 | 0.71 |
| Home / away goals scored | 3 | 6 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 8 | 4 |
| Last 5 points | 4 | 10 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 4 | 8 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 7 | 5 |
| Win percentage | 14% | 57% |
Derby County FC recent form
WLLLD
Swansea City AFC recent form
WDLWW
Recent form
Derby County FC
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 8 scored, 8 conceded
- Dvs Cardiff City FC2–2
- Lvs Sheffield United FC1–2
- Wat Queens Park Rangers FC3–2
- Lat Norwich City FC1–2
- Wvs Oxford United FC1–0
Swansea City AFC
2W 2D 1L in the last 5 · 7 scored, 5 conceded
- Dvs Sheffield United FC0–0
- Wvs Charlton Athletic FC3–1
- Dat Norwich City FC1–1
- Wat Queens Park Rangers FC2–1
- Lvs Southampton FC1–2
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 13 August 2026
Last updated: 29 August 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 510
- 1X2 accuracy
- 46.9%
- BTTS accuracy
- 57.5%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.8%
- Exact score
- 10.6%
Related predictions
Championship
Swansea City AFC vs Norwich City FC
Home
60%
Draw
21%
Away
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- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 58%BTTS: 55%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Championship
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs Bolton Wanderers FC
Home
74%
Draw
14%
Away
12%
- Predicted score: 2–1Over 2.5: 76%BTTS: 63%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Championship
Birmingham City FC vs Preston North End FC
Home
52%
Draw
23%
Away
25%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 60%BTTS: 60%
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.