Premier League
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest FC
Home
62%
Draw
21%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 52%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 11
Chelsea FC vs Leeds United FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 (GMT)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 11
- Venue
- Stamford Bridge, London, England
United Matchday prediction
Chelsea FC win54%
Draw24%
Leeds United FC win22%
- Predicted score
- 1–0
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- BTTS yes
- 51%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 75%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 28%
- BTTS no
- 49%
- Expected goals
- 1.71 – 0.99
Medium confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Home scoring numbers favour Chelsea FC, who have created goals at an above-average rate in front of their own crowd. Leeds United FC have defended well on the road, conceding less often than the average travelling side. Recent results also favour Chelsea FC, whose points-per-match rate over the last five games is above average.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.5%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–06.8%
- 0–16.7%
- 1–25.6%
- 3–05.6%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Chelsea FC | Leeds United FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals per match | 1.90 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Home / away goals scored | 13 | 3 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 8 | 5 |
| Last 5 points | 9 | 5 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 9 | 3 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 4 | 5 |
| Win percentage | 50% | 30% |
Chelsea FC recent form
WWLWL
Leeds United FC recent form
LDDLW
Recent form
Chelsea FC
3W 0D 2L in the last 5 · 9 scored, 4 conceded
- Lat Sunderland AFC0–1
- Wvs Manchester United FC2–0
- Lvs Tottenham Hotspur FC0–2
- Wat Everton FC2–0
- Wvs AFC Bournemouth5–1
Leeds United FC
1W 2D 2L in the last 5 · 3 scored, 5 conceded
- Wvs Tottenham Hotspur FC1–0
- Lat AFC Bournemouth0–2
- Dat Sunderland AFC0–0
- Dvs Manchester United FC1–1
- Lat Arsenal FC1–2
Team news
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 31 October 2026
Last updated: 13 November 2026
Status: Live
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
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Home
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Draw
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Away
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Draw
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Away
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Draw
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Away
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.