Premier League
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest FC
Home
62%
Draw
21%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 52%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 4
Chelsea FC vs Hull City AFC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 4
- Venue
- Stamford Bridge, London, England
United Matchday prediction
Chelsea FC win35%
Draw22%
Hull City AFC win42%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 33%
- BTTS yes
- 68%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 86%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 45%
- BTTS no
- 32%
- Expected goals
- 1.65 – 1.81
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
The model rates Chelsea FC's home scoring output above the Premier League average. Hull City AFC have defended well on the road, conceding less often than the average travelling side. Combined attacking and defensive numbers point toward a higher-scoring game than average. Statistically the two sides are closely matched, so the draw probability stays comparatively high.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.4%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.7%
- 1–05.2%
- 0–25.2%
- 1–35.1%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Chelsea FC | Hull City AFC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.10 |
| Goals per match | 1.90 | 1.10 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.60 | 1.10 |
| Home / away goals scored | 13 | 4 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 8 | 6 |
| Last 5 points | 9 | 3 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 9 | 5 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 4 | 7 |
| Win percentage | 50% | 20% |
Chelsea FC recent form
WWLWL
Hull City AFC recent form
DLDDL
Recent form
Chelsea FC
3W 0D 2L in the last 5 · 11 scored, 10 conceded
- Lat Arsenal FC1–2
- Wvs Brighton & Hove Albion FC4–3
- Wat Fulham FC3–2
- Lat Sunderland AFC1–2
- Wvs Tottenham Hotspur FC2–1
Hull City AFC
4W 1D 0L in the last 5 · 6 scored, 0 conceded
- Dvs Aston Villa FC0–0
- Wat Coventry City FC1–0
- Wvs Manchester United FC2–0
- Wvs Middlesbrough FC1–0
- Wat Millwall FC2–0
Team news
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 23 August 2026
Last updated: 12 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
Premier League
Hull City AFC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Home
20%
Draw
22%
Away
58%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 57%BTTS: 55%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League
Brentford FC vs Everton FC
Home
51%
Draw
27%
Away
22%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 40%BTTS: 43%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League
Coventry City FC vs Ipswich Town FC
Home
40%
Draw
21%
Away
39%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 75%BTTS: 74%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.