Premier League
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest FC
Home
62%
Draw
21%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 52%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 6
Chelsea FC vs AFC Bournemouth Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 6
- Venue
- Stamford Bridge, London, England
United Matchday prediction
Chelsea FC win49%
Draw20%
AFC Bournemouth win31%
- Predicted score
- 2–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 78%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 22%
- BTTS yes
- 75%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 91%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 58%
- BTTS no
- 25%
- Expected goals
- 2.28 – 1.82
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
The model rates Chelsea FC's home scoring output above the Premier League average. The model expects a relatively open scoring environment in this match. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–17.9%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–16.9%
- 1–26.3%
- 3–16.0%
- 3–25.4%
- 2–04.3%
- 2–34.3%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Chelsea FC | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.50 |
| Goals per match | 1.90 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Home / away goals scored | 13 | 9 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 8 | 10 |
| Last 5 points | 9 | 12 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 9 | 10 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 4 | 6 |
| Win percentage | 50% | 40% |
Chelsea FC recent form
WWLWL
AFC Bournemouth recent form
LWWWW
Recent form
Chelsea FC
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 10 scored, 12 conceded
- Lat Brentford FC0–3
- Dvs Hull City AFC2–2
- Lat Arsenal FC1–2
- Wvs Brighton & Hove Albion FC4–3
- Wat Fulham FC3–2
AFC Bournemouth
0W 3D 2L in the last 5 · 6 scored, 8 conceded
- Lvs Liverpool FC0–1
- Dvs Brentford FC2–2
- Dat Newcastle United FC2–2
- Dvs Everton FC1–1
- Lat Manchester City FC1–2
Team news
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 19 September 2026
Last updated: 10 October 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
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Hull City AFC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Home
20%
Draw
22%
Away
58%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 57%BTTS: 55%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
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Brentford FC vs Everton FC
Home
51%
Draw
27%
Away
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- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 40%BTTS: 43%
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Coventry City FC vs Ipswich Town FC
Home
40%
Draw
21%
Away
39%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 75%BTTS: 74%
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.