Championship · Matchweek 1

Charlton Athletic FC vs Derby County FC Prediction

Match essentials

Kick-off (UK)
Sat 15 Aug, 15:00 (BST)
Competition
Championship
Round
Matchweek 1
Venue
To be confirmed

United Matchday prediction

Charlton Athletic FC win25%
Draw25%
Derby County FC win50%
Predicted score
1–1
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals
51%
BTTS yes
51%
Over 1.5 goals
74%
Over 3.5 goals
27%
BTTS no
49%
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.59

High confidence

Why the model favours this outcome

Charlton Athletic FC have scored at a below-average rate at home, which limits the model's home goal expectation. Derby County FC's travelling attack has outperformed the competition average.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.9%
  • 0–111.5%
  • 1–29.5%
  • 0–29.2%
  • 1–07.5%
  • 0–07.3%
  • 2–16.2%
  • 1–35.0%

Team comparison

StatisticCharlton Athletic FCDerby County FC
Matches played77
Points per match1.290.71
Goals per match0.710.86
Goals conceded per match1.291.71
Home / away goals scored13
Home / away goals conceded04
Last 5 points34
Last 5 goals scored24
Last 5 goals conceded87
Win percentage29%14%

Charlton Athletic FC recent form

DLDDL

Derby County FC recent form

WLLLD

Recent form

Charlton Athletic FC

1W 1D 3L in the last 5 · 6 scored, 9 conceded

  • Lat Swansea City AFC1–3
  • Wvs Hull City AFC2–1
  • Lvs Ipswich Town FC1–2
  • Dat Sheffield Wednesday FC1–1
  • Lvs Preston North End FC1–2

Derby County FC

2W 0D 3L in the last 5 · 7 scored, 8 conceded

  • Lvs Sheffield United FC1–2
  • Wat Queens Park Rangers FC3–2
  • Lat Norwich City FC1–2
  • Wvs Oxford United FC1–0
  • Lat Southampton FC1–2

Model transparency

Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 13 August 2026
Last updated: 13 August 2026
Status: Locked

How predictions work

Prediction record

Matches predicted
510
1X2 accuracy
46.9%
BTTS accuracy
57.5%
Over 2.5 accuracy
58.8%
Exact score
10.6%

Related predictions

Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.